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Maple Leafs vs. Kraken NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Toronto to Bounce Back (Monday, Feb. 14)

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Toronto to Bounce Back (Monday, Feb. 14) article feature image
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Vaughn Ridley/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Auston Matthews.

  • The Kraken host the Maple Leafs Monday night as home underdogs.
  • The Maple Leafs have lost two straight, but can turn the tide on their road trip with a win in Seattle?
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken Odds

Maple Leafs Odds -190
Kraken Odds +155
Over/Under 6.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

After having their six-game winning streak snapped with a 5-2 loss in Calgary Thursday, the Leafs suffered a tough 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Canucks Saturday. They have a chance to head in the right direction and get their offensive play back on track on Monday against a Kraken team that havs allowed the sixth-most Goals Against in the league this season.

Will we see Toronto find its offensive form here in a favorable spot?

Maple Leafs Offense Looking to Bounce Back

The talented Leafs offense should not underachieve too often this season, but they will enter this game having hit a wall against Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko to start the road trip.

Against the Canucks, the Leafs generated 53 shots, and 4.55 Expected Goals but saw Demko put together a defensive masterpiece, stopping 51 shots and claiming the game’s first star.

But that happens in hockey, and I don’t think the Leafs last two outings should be cause for concern offensively. The talent on hand led by the big four of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander will produce consistent offensive results, and the Leafs’ fourth-best xGF/60 over their last six outings suggests the same.

The concern moving forward continues to be the below average play from Jack Campbell of late. Campbell should get the start as the Leafs look to get him moving back in the right direction after starting Petr Mrazek Saturday.

The Leafs hold the league’s third-best xGA/60 rate of 2.46 (all-situations) over their last six contests, but that mark does seem somewhat favorable based off of the eye test. That is always likely to be the softer part of this team’s game this season.

Campbell holds a +8.9 Goals Saved Above Expected rating with a .922 Save % through 33 games played this season. He is clearly better than we have seen recently and should trend upwards. However, he is not in the elite tier of goaltenders as certain stretches of play over the last season and a half have suggested.

Kraken Face an Uphill Battle

The Kraken managed a rare win last time out against Anaheim, but an Expected Goals rate of 1.49 to 3.20 surely suggests they were somewhat fortunate.

This team deserves some luck though, as early on in the year they suffered countless tough losses, mainly due to suspect play from Philipp Grubauer, who was supposed to be one of the team’s strengths in its inaugural season.

Defensively, the Kraken are certainly sharper than a 3.46 Goals Against per Game rate suggests this season. However, they will be in for a very tough matchup Monday against a hungry Leafs team which should force a lot of the play into Seattle’s zone.

Offensively, the Kraken are devoid of top talent but have strong depth when at their best. This is a challenging matchup as some of the depth matchups Seattle would have an advantage with against most clubs should still be controlled by Toronto.

The Kraken’s soft penalty kill could be a big concern should Grubauer struggle again. The Kraken have killed just 76% of opposition power plays and will be challenged by the Leafs’ top-ranked unit at 30.5%.

Seattle seems to go back to Grubauer consistently whether Driedger deserves more starts or not, and I expect Grubi to get back in for this one. Grubauer holds a league-worst -24.5 Goals Saved Above Expected rating with an .887 Save % in 35 games played this season.

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Maple Leafs-Kraken Pick

This looks like a tremendous get-right spot for the Leafs. They should carry far more of the play, and that should result in goals against either Driedger or Grubauer.

While I believe the Kraken are better than their record would suggest, this is a tough spot. I don’t expect them to control much of the play against the Leafs, and the Kraken’s weaknesses will play right into Toronto’s hands. If Toronto can create some power play opportunities out of that greater run of play, that will pose a big problem for Seattle as outlined.

I expect Toronto to bounce back here and avoid losing three straight for just the second time this season. I think they will cover -1.5 more often than a line of +125 suggests and would back their puck-line down to +105.

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs +125 (Play to +105)

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