NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Oilers (Dec. 14)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Oilers (Dec. 14) article feature image
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Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Odds

Maple Leafs Odds -120
Oilers Odds +100
Over/Under 6.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Two of the NHL’s most dynamic offensive forces will meet in Edmonton on Tuesday night, and the timing is quite interesting considering that both the Oilers and Leafs, after terrific starts to the season, have started to trend down a bit over the past few games.

While Edmonton’s skid is more noteworthy considering the Oilers have lost five on the spin, Toronto has won three of its last six but has allowed 26 goals in that span.

These two teams rely heavily on their power-play for production, so special teams could play a major role in this one.

Can Toronto Keep McDavid and Draisaitl Quiet?

Toronto has had no issues getting on the board during its current 3-2-1 stretch. The Leafs are 10th overall with an average of 3.21 goals per game and have scored 27 goals over their last six contests. While Toronto’s goal-scoring outburst has come in recent games, the team has been generating chances at an elite clip. The Leafs rank second high-danger chances per 60 minutes.

An explosive offense is nothing new for the Leafs and neither is a pedestrian defense. Toronto currently ranks 22nd in the NHL in preventing high-danger scoring chances, 13th in expected goals against and 14th in goals allowed at 5-on-5.

What is different this season is that the Leafs are getting elite goaltending. Jack Campbell is 14-5-2 with a .935 save percentage (SV%) and a league-leading +14.9 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).


Edmonton Is Wobbling

We’re not use to seeing the Edmonton Oilers struggle to score offensively. On the season they are averaging 3.38 goals scored per game, but they have been held to under three goals in their last four contests. In fact, they’ve only mustered four total goals in their last three games.

Even though they’ve slowed their scoring pace down as of late, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still tied for first in the NHL with 45 points. Similarly, the Oilers power play has slowed down since the start of the season, but the unit remains atop the NHL, converting at a 31.7% rate.

Things are not so pretty on defense. The Oilers are allowing 12.08 high-danger chances per game, which ranks 26th amongst the league, and their 2.47 xGA/60 ranks 19th overall.

The Oilers have not named a starter, but no matter if it’s Stuart Skinner or Mikko Koskinen they will be the B-side of this goaltending matchup with Jack Campbell.

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Pick

In betting it’s always good to keep your eye out for buy-low opportunities and I think this game fits the bill. The Oilers have struggled lately, especially on offense, but nobody can expect that form to continue with McDavid and Draisaitl in the fold.

Additionally, the Maple Leafs are starting to show some cracks and are relying way too much on Jack Campbell and their hot offense to paper over some defensive flaws.

This is a good spot to back the Oilers to get back on track as a home underdog.

Pick: Edmonton Oilers +100

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