Top NHL Prop Bets for Friday: Devan Dubnyk Over/Under 27.5 Saves?

Oct 19, 2018 2:39 PM EDT
  • Two NHL prop bets stand out for Friday night's slate, featuring the Stars-Wild and Predators-Flames.
  • See Joe Holka's picks for Devan Dubnyk over/under 27.5 total saves and P.K. Subban over/under 2.5 shots on goal.

There are only three games on Friday’s slate, but we still have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at FantasyLabs, as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are two props I’m eyeing for Friday night, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.

Note: All lines via Bovada.

Wild G Devan Dubnyk

The pick: Over 27.5 total saves (-125)

The Stars have registered the fifth-most shots per game to start the season, averaging 34.5 pucks on net over their first six games.

Our proprietary save prediction metric has Dubnyk projected for the most saves on the slate (35.41), which makes sense given Minnesota has allowed the second-most shots to start the season and Dallas has the second-highest Corsi for expectation.

This is a pretty egregious line, unless for some reason Dubnyk gets pulled as this game gets out of hand in favor of the Stars as home favorites (-136).

Predators D P.K. Subban

The pick: Under 2.5 shots on goal (-110)

NHL player props tend to skew toward long-term averages and less toward recent production and matchups.

Subban is a fantastic example of that at only -110, averaging 2.54 shots per game over the past year but only 2.17 over the past month. I don’t see him progressing back toward his longer-term mean in this matchup, as the Flames have allowed the seventh-fewest shots per game this season (28.3).

Unsurprisingly, the Predators own a bottom-two Corsi for expectation, and Subban is projected to continue this downtrend of shooting volume with a paltry 2.0 shot prediction in our Models.

Credit:

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Devan Dubnyk

Follow Joe Holka on Twitter
@JoeHolka

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