Top NHL Prop Bets for Thursday: Jake Virtanen Over/Under 2.5 Shots on Goal?

Oct 25, 2018 4:38 PM EDT
  • There are four NHL player prop bets that stand out for Thursday night's 11-game slate.
  • Joe Holka provides value plays on Jake Virtanen over/under 2.5 shots on goal, Henrik Lundqvist over/under 31.5 saves and more.

We have a nice 11-game slate on Thursday, there are plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at Fantasy Labs, as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are four props I’m eyeing for Thursday night, with the first puck drop at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Note: All lines via Bovada.

Ducks G John Gibson

The pick: Over 31.5 saves (-115)

Just keep hammering the over on saves for Anaheim goalies.

The Stars have the ninth-most shots for (33.0 per game) and the Ducks have the most shots against (37.9) to start the season. Gibson has our highest save prediction on the slate (36.24), and the Stars have the fourth-highest Corsi for expectation.

Another data point in favor of the over: the Ducks have surprisingly allowed the sixth-fewest goals this year (2.40), despite surrendering a ton of shots. This spot sets up well for saves, sometimes it’s as simple as that. Gibson has made 35 or more saves in six of his last seven games.

Rangers LW Chris Kreider

The pick: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-134)

As we talked about on Thursday’s Inside the Lab, the Rangers-Blackhawks game is shaping up to be one of the fastest-paced matchups on the entire slate, so naturally it is set up for a ton of shooting volume on both sides.

Kreider looks like an option worth paying for even at with the juice, averaging 3.11 and 3.67 shots per game over the past month and 15 days, respectively. Chicago has allowed the fourth-most Corsi on the slate over the past month.

Rangers G Henrik Lundqvist

The pick: Over 31.5 saves (-115)

In the same game, King Henrik stands out in a pretty easy over situation. Our proprietary save-prediction metric has Lundqvist projected for 35.64 saves, trailing only the aforementioned Gibson for the slate lead.

Defensively, New York has been attackable, allowing the ninth-most shots on goal per game (34.1). Most of the intrigue with Lundqvist has to do with the Blackhawks’ system of getting as many pucks to the net as possible. Only Carolina and San Jose have averaged more shots on goal per game this season.

Canucks RW Jake Virtanen

The pick: Under 2.5 shots on goal (-125)

There aren’t a ton of palatable value props tonight, but even at -125, the under on 2.5 shots looks strong for Virtanen against the Coyotes. He’s a low-volume shooter historically, averaging a paltry 1.69 shots per game over the past year. Even in the short term, he has taken only 2.0 shots per game over the past 15 days.

The matchup makes it an easy under, as the Coyotes have allowed the sixth-fewest shots (27.9) this season and the Canucks own the third-lowest Corsi for expectation on the entire slate.

Credit:

Anne-Marie Sorvin, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jake Virtanen.

Follow Joe Holka on Twitter
@JoeHolka

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
NJ
CAR
6
-1.5
6
-1.5
MIN
CHI
5.5
-1.5
5.5
-1.5
LV
EDM
5.5
-1.5
5.5
+1.5
COL
ANA
5.5
+1.5
5.5
+1.5