Tuesday NHL Odds & Picks: Team Totals and Player Prop Bets for Stars vs. Golden Knights (Sept. 8)
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- The Vegas Golden Knights are favored over the Dallas Stars on Tuesday night, but there are a few props worth attacking at better prices.
- See how we're betting a player prop and a team total as Vegas tries to even the series at 1-1.
The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights meet on Tuesday night for Game Two of the Western Conference Finals. Game One saw a low scoring affair with the Dallas Stars impressing in a 1-0 win to kick the series off. Michael Leboff wrote why he feels Dallas is a worthy bet in Game Two again, but we’ll take a look at some other ways to attack this game from a betting standpoint.
Vegas Golden Knights Team Total Under 2.5
Odds: +155 (DraftKings)
The Vegas Golden Knights were probably extremely thankful that they wouldn’t have to try and score on Thatcher Demko anymore once they eliminated the Vancouver Canucks last round. The young Canucks goalie only conceded one goal to Vegas in the final two games of their series, and the goal was on the powerplay.
However, the Golden Knights were greeted in Round 1 of this series by another great goaltending performance from the Stars’ Anton Khudobin, who stopped all 25 shots he faced en route to shutting out Vegas.
In other words, Vegas has scored just one goal against a goaltender in the last three games they’ve played. Zero of those goals were at even strength.
Even though it wasn’t necessarily the case in Game 1, Vegas is known for its ability to generate shot attempts without sacrificing quality. They were a top-two team during the regular season in expected goals, shot attempts and high danger chances. They’ve continued that form right into the playoffs, leading the playoffs in all three categories.
Despite this, cold streaks are real. A team being snake bitten is a real thing. Mental confidence can impact performance. Vegas was a bottom 10 team in shooting percentage during the regular season and has the lowest shooting percentage of the four remaining teams at just 7.41%. Sure, these things usually regress towards the mean, but it could also be a sign of a lack of shooting talent.
On the other side of the ice, Dallas has developed a reputation as a stingy team. They were the second best team in terms of actual goals per game during the regular season. The playoffs have been a different story, but there’s no doubt that when this team plays to their identity, there are not many better defensive teams in the sport.
Khudobin posted a remarkable .930 save percentage during the regular season. He hasn’t been as good as that during the postseason, but maybe Game 1 was a sign of things to come for Khudobin.
When you factor in Vegas’ current form, their shooting percentage woes, Dallas’ stinginess and the talent of Khudobin, it’s not hard to imagine Vegas continuing their scoring problems. I like the +155 here.
Shea Theodore Over 0.5 Points
Odds: -122 (FanDuel)
Shea Theodore has developed into one of the best offensive defensemen in the sport. The 25-year-old posted 46 points in 71 games during the regular season, and has been even better in this postseason, adding 16 points in 16 games.
Theodore might be going under the radar in this series, as Dallas’ big two defensive studs in Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg have garnered a lot of attention. However, Theodore is just as good as those two guys.
In this postseason, Theodore has posted an insane 68.1% expected goal rate, which is third best amongst players with over 200 minutes played. He just barely trails teammates Mark Stone and William Karlsson in that category. When Theodore is on the ice, Vegas has the puck in the offensive zone.
Theodore has played 16 games in this postseason so far and he has points in 11 of those games. He’s averaging a point per game thus far. The -122 odds on this bet imply a probability of 54.5% that Theodore records a point, but he has points in 68.8% of the games he’s played in August and September.
Theodore is on the ice a lot. He is averaging 22:31 per game and in Game 1 was on the ice for over 25 minutes. He quarterbacks the top powerplay unit for the Knights as only Reilly Smith received more powerplay time than he did on Sunday. Earlier I said that Vegas has scored one goal against a goalie in three games. That goal was scored by Theodore.
Theodore gets a lot of time on the ice, usually in the offensive zone. He gets opportunities to play with talented players. He himself is extremely gifted and he’s producing in these play-offs. I think he has well over a 54.5% chance of recording a point.