The Pittsburgh Penguins (32-17-5) and Vegas Golden Knights (29-22-14) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Golden Knights are priced at +160 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+105o / -125u). The Golden Knights are a -155 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 6.5 105o / -125u | +130 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 6.5 105o / -125u | -155 |
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights Spread: +1.5 (-192), -1.5 (+160)
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 6.5 (+105o / -125u)
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Penguins +130, Golden Knights -155
Penguins vs. Golden Knights Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins were dealt a massive blow when Sidney Crosby suffered a significant knee injury. Crosby's loss, coupled with the fact that they had the toughest remaining schedule after the Olympic break, made them a trendy bet to fall out of the playoff picture in the ultra-competitive Eastern Conference.
Pittsburgh has tread water effectively so far without Crosby, posting a 3-2-3 record since the restart. If not for three more shootout losses in that span, we would likely be hearing talk about how well the team has handled Crosby's absence.
The Penguins' 27 regulation wins rank tied for sixth in the NHL, and if not for an absurd 1-10 record in the gimmicky shootout, they would be a near lock to make the postseason, further illuminating the NHL's need to switch to a 3-2-1 point system.
The Penguins will also remain without Evgeni Malkin in Thursday's matchup, who will serve the fourth of a five-game suspension. Justin Brazeau, Jack St. Ivany and Samuel Girard are also expected to miss Thursday's game.
Pittsburgh has played to a 51.27% expected goal share across eight games since the restart, and head coach Dan Muse's side has continued to play a fundamentally strong, modern game.
The team has received strong contributions from numerous depth skaters all season long, but with Malkin and Crosby sidelined, its depth down the middle is a meaningful concern for the time being.
Stuart Skinner is expected to get the start in goal. Skinner has played to a +8.5 GSAx rating and a .891 save percentage this season across 40 appearances, and has elevated his play since being acquired by the Penguins.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights have arguably been the most disappointing side in the NHL this season, having played to a record of 29-22-14. They are just 2-6-0 since the restart, including an ugly 5-0 loss in Pittsburgh on March 1st, in a game that it was seemingly catching the Penguins in a good spot.
Bottom-barrel goaltending has been a massive issue for Vegas, as it holds a team save percentage of .875 this season, despite holding the second-best xGA/60 rating in the entire NHL.
With few convincing goaltenders on the market, the Golden Knights ultimately were forced to stick with the tandem of Adin Hill and Akira Schmid.
Schmid is expected to get the start in Thursday's matchup and has been the best of the Knights' options with a -0.9 GSAx rating and a .893 save percentage across 32 appearances.
The Knights have only 21 regulation wins this season and have struggled mightily to beat other playoff-caliber teams dating back to November. Like the Penguins, they have struggled mightily in the shootout, with a record of 1-6, which is a key reason they trail the Anaheim Ducks in the division, who are 8-0 in the shootout.
Captain Mark Stone has once again popped up on the IR late in the season, but it's hard to suggest that Stone's injury is anything but legitimate this time around, given the team's desperate need for points.
Stone has put up 60 points in 43 games this season and holds the sixth-highest point-per-game average among all NHL skaters.
Penguins vs. Golden Knights Prediction
With near league-worst goaltending, it's difficult to imagine the Golden Knights will ever live up to their hype as a preseason Stanley Cup favorite.
Still, it does seem that this could be a low-water mark, and their roster upside, as well as their underlying metrics, suggest things will improve to some extent moving forward.
They are catching the Penguins at a great time, who will remain without arguably their two top skaters, as well as several other regulars.
I'm not overly big on fading the Penguins, whose depth and overall process seem to remain underrated, but this sets up as a great get-right spot for the Knights, and my lean in terms of a side would be backing them at -150.
There does look to be value in backing Pavel Dorofeyev to record over 2.5 shots on goal at -125.
Dorofeyev has averaged 6.2 shot attempts per game over the last ten matchups, as well as 3.4 shots on target per game. Those marks should be sustainable moving forward.
His one-timer is the preferred option on the team's strong top power play unit, while playing alongside Mitch Marner should continue to help Dorofeyev get looks at even strength. He is the purest scorer on the team, and he's in suitable roles to allow his strong finishing ability to shine through.
Pick: Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125, DraftKings | Play to -140)
