The Edmonton Oilers (32-25-8) and Dallas Stars (40-14-10) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-125o / +105u). The Stars are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Oilers are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Oilers vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Oilers vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 -125o / 105u | +105 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 -125o / 105u | -125 |
- Oilers vs. Stars Spread: Stars -1.5 (+180 ), Oilers +1.5 (-220)
- Oilers vs. Stars Over/Under: 6.5 (-125o / +105u)
- Oilers vs. Stars Moneyline: Oilers +105, Stars -125
Oilers vs Stars Kalshi Odds
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Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton picked up a significant win against Colorado on Tuesday and has now won three of its last four, but the circumstances surrounding that victory have raised some concern heading into a back-to-back.
Connor Ingram exited the game after a collision with Nathan MacKinnon, a play that sparked plenty of debate and ultimately resulted in a game misconduct for MacKinnon.
However you interpret the rule, the outcome is the same. Edmonton is potentially shorthanded at its weakest position headed into a matchup with Dallas.
Tristan Jarry took over in relief, stopping 11 of 12 shots to help seal the win, but asking him to shoulder the workload if Ingram misses any time is far from a reassuring proposition. In 14 games since being acquired from Pittsburgh, he has posted a .863 SV% and a 3.93 GAA, neither of which builds much confidence.
A recent report that Jarry clashed with teammates at practice is something I wouldn't read too deeply into, but it does shed some light on the broader frustrations surrounding the position.
Ultimately, none of it changes the fundamental nature of the team. Edmonton ranks second in goals scored and 29th in goals allowed this season, a pairing that just about encapsulates its season in two numbers.
To be fair, not all of the struggles can be pinned on the netminders alone. The play in front of them deserves its share of the blame as well. It is admittedly too early to draw any conclusions, but the addition of Connor Murphy has shown some encouraging signs of helping the issue.
Edmonton held up well defensively against Vegas in a 4–2 win and did a notably better job of keeping Colorado in check than in its 9–1 loss earlier this season. The penalty kill has also responded, successfully handling seven of eight opportunities since the trade.
As for tonight, the decision in net is a toss-up. On the front end of a back-to-back, Edmonton may opt to give Jarry the start and allow Ingram a bit more time to rest, even if he’s cleared to go.
Dallas Stars
Dallas enters tonight riding a 13-game point streak, going 12-0-1 in that span.
Despite injuries to both Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz, who are expected to miss extended time, the Stars have not skipped a beat, posting a league-leading 65.38% expected goal share and a +19 goal differential over their last 10 games.
Five points separate Dallas from the top seed in the West, with Colorado holding a game in hand, but at this pace it would be hard to count the Stars out of the race. How they handle the next week and a half or so should provide some clarity.
Between now and March 21, Dallas faces five straight opponents currently sitting in playoff position, capping it off with matchups against Colorado and Minnesota.
As for tonight, the Stars have won five of their last six regular-season matchups against the Oilers, but have come up short when it has mattered most, losing to Edmonton in the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two seasons.
The blueprint to beat Edmonton is no secret, and Dallas' recent form sets up well on paper. That said, the Stars know better than anyone how quickly things can go sideways. Last season's Conference Finals were a painful reminder, with Oettinger getting pulled not even eight minutes into the series-clinching Game 5.
The numbers over their last 10 games are encouraging, though. Dallas has allowed just 21.5 shots per game with only 16 high-danger chances against, a mark that sits well clear of the rest of the league.
In net, I expect Oettinger to get another chance to exercise his demons against Edmonton. He has struggled at times this season but has looked sharp recently, posting a .918 SV% and a 1.95 GAA over his last four starts.
Behind him, Casey DeSmith has been a reliable backup option, posting a .912 SV%, 2.28 GAA, and 13.2 GSAx on the year.
Oilers vs. Stars Prediction
This feels almost too easy at this point, which is usually reason for suspicion. The Oilers have gone over this number in 13 of their last 14 games, and both meetings between these two teams this season cleared 6.5, including an 11-goal affair back in November.
Over the last 10 games, Edmonton and Dallas are tied for the league lead in goals scored at more than four per game, while the Oilers have surrendered the most on the other end.
It’s worth noting Dallas has a league-best 1.97 xGA/60 over that same span, but with the way Edmonton generates chances, that feels like a hurdle rather than a roadblock.
If Jarry draws the start tonight for Edmonton, consider it a bonus, as the over is 4-1 in the Stars’ last five games as well.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-125)
