The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9) and Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-107o / -115u). The Lightning are a -222 favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are +182 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 6.5 -107o / -115u | +182 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 6.5 -107o / -115u | -222 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+115 ), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-135)
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (-107o / -115u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Moneyline: Maple Leafs +182, Lightning -222
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Kalshi Odds
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
Auston Matthews returns to the Toronto Maple Leafs following a gold medal win at the Olympics, and he may be battling a figurative (and perhaps literal) hangover. That said, there are several reasons for concern with Toronto in this matchup.
The Maple Leafs have struggled to generate high-danger scoring chances this season, ranking 25th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). At the same time, they have had difficulty suppressing high-danger opportunities at the other end.
Entering this matchup, Toronto ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing that defense is goaltender Joseph Woll, who has struggled recently.
Woll has lost five of his past seven starts, posting a .886 save percentage and a 3.85 goals-against average over that stretch.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Across the ice, the Tampa Bay Lightning are expected to start Andrei Vasilevskiy. A Vezina Trophy candidate this season, Vasilevskiy enters this matchup on an eight-game winning streak.
He owns a .938 save percentage and a 1.58 goals-against average during that run.
Not only do the Lightning hold the goaltending edge, but they are also the stronger team overall. This season, Tampa Bay outranks Toronto in xGF/60, xGA/60 and expected goal share.
It is clear why the Lightning sit atop the Atlantic Division while the Maple Leafs are near the basement.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction
Tampa Bay holds advantages across the board in this matchup, including home ice, goaltending and overall team play. Simply put, the Bolts are the better team in the better spot.
There is more value in taking the Lightning on the puck line at +122 rather than laying -222 on the moneyline. Each of Toronto’s past four losses has come by three goals, while 10 of Tampa's past 14 wins have come by at least a two-goal margin.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+122 at Kalshi | Play to +115)
