The Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks meet in Game 6 of the NHL Playoffs on Thursday. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Golden Knights are priced at +210 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (+106o/-130u). The Golden Knights are a -114 favorite to win outright, while the Ducks are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Golden Knights vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks.
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Odds, Pick
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +210 | 6.5 106o / -130u | -114 |
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -265 | 6.5 106o / -130u | -105 |
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+210), Ducks +1.5 (-265)
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks Over/Under: 6.5 (+106o/-130u)
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks Moneyline: Golden Knights -114, Ducks -105
Golden Knights vs Ducks Polymarket Odds
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Golden Knights vs. Ducks Preview
Vegas Golden Knights
There are plenty of parallels between this series and the Knights' opening-round matchup against the Mammoth, though overall, Anaheim has played Vegas more effectively than Utah did.
Early on in this series, the speedy young Ducks dictated more of the overall run of play and were arguably unlucky to split Games 1 and 2, but the more physical and methodical Knights have slowly started to get to their game more effectively.
Vegas led 18 to 14 in high-danger scoring chances in Game 5 on home ice and leaned on another solid performance from Carter Hart to help earn the result in what was a very evenly contested matchup.
Following their win in Game 5, the Knights now hold a record of 8-11-5 with Mark Stone out of the lineup this season. While no individual skater is likely to replicate Stone's impact, the Knights currently appear a little more well situated to do so with William Karlsson back in the lineup and with Tomas Hertl finally back chipping in some offense.
With Stone sidelined, the Knights mainly used a top line of Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Pavel Dorofeyev. Across 13:05 in Game 5, the unit played to an expected goal share of 58.5%, outshot the Ducks 9 to 5, and came through with the overtime winner thanks to a pretty finish from Dorofeyev.
Dorofeyev has scored three goals from 10 shot attempts over the last two games. His one-timer from the right circle will always be the preferred look for the top power play unit, while he has worked well alongside two strong play-drivers in Eichel and Barbashev.
While Dorofeyev is known as a fairly one-dimensional player, as is often the case with many wingers who don't throw their weight around, he's posted more respectable defensive numbers this season than is seemingly credited.
Brayden McNabb will be unavailable for this matchup as he serves his one-game suspension. McNabb is a quality shutdown option, and his loss is meaningful from a handicapping perspective.
After some really shaky work early on last series versus the Mammoth, Hart now holds a +1.3 GSAx rating and a .909 save percentage and has been a surprising strength for Vegas in this series.
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim has to be a little frustrated to be in a situation where it needs to win two straight to come back in this series. Game 3 was the only matchup in which it truly did not have a chance to win, and both Games 1 and 5 in Vegas could have easily yielded better results with more clinical finishing.
The Ducks have played to a 50.53% expected goal share at even strength in the series, but have shot just 6.77%, which has prevented a solid overall process from garnering the desired results.
Head coach Joel Quenneville deserves a lot of credit for the way the Ducks have been able to elevate their defensive game in this postseason, which seemed fairly hard to predict based on how horrid they were defensively while chasing the division title down the stretch.
There have still been moments when Anaheim's shaky play in the defensive zone has shone through, but those moments have been much less common than I would have expected. Regardless of the outcome of this do-or-die game, there is a wealth of positives to take away from this postseason for the young roster.
While Quenneville's work with the Ducks this season certainly deserves praise, one potential misstep might be opting to scratch Olen Zellweger for the majority of the postseason. Zellweger played 16:33 in Game 5 and was ultimately rewarded for a solid performance by scoring the game-tying goal.
Lukas Dostal seems to be trending in the right direction in goal, having played to a save percentage of .889 over the last two games. Dostal's season has been a good example of how difficult goaltending is to project, as he was quietly one of the best goaltenders in the NHL last season, playing behind a horrific defensive side, but has struggled to replicate those results thus far.
Even entering the Olympics, Dostal's ability to steal games was a big talking point from a number of players and media, but he's struggled to play to his ceiling this season.
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Prediction
This game being priced almost as a pick-em seems fair to me, as four of the five games in this series easily could have gone either way, and we will likely see another closely contested matchup Thursday.
The most appealing angle for me from a side's perspective would be backing the Ducks to win the series at +350, as I actually think a high-pressure Game 7 on the road would set up more favorably for Anaheim than is being given credit for.
There does look to be value with the chalky angle in backing Dorofeyev to record over 2.5 shots on goal. He's well situated to keep generating chances at even strength alongside Eichel and Barbashev, and the team will always try to set up his shot from the right circle on the man advantage.
Action PRO projects him for 2.7 shots on goal tonight.
Dorofeyev is an elite scorer who's found his touch of late and seems likely to keep pouring chances toward goal in this matchup.
Pick: Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115, FanDuel | Play to -135)
