I am playing into the uncertainty around the Bears' offense, and it has given us a favorable number. There is a lot of ambiguity about how targets get distributed between Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland now that D.J. Moore is out of the picture. We do not have a reliable sample of what this offense looks like with all three of those players on the field without Moore, and I think the market has overestimated Odunze's role as a result. My expectation is that Odunze is the number three target in this offense. Reports out of Bears camp have backed that up, and the underlying efficiency numbers support Burden and Loveland commanding significant opportunity. Burden averaged 2.69 yards per route run last season, Loveland 1.84, Odunze 1.61. Sample size matters here. All three missed time or were not full-time players for the entirety of last season, and both Burden and Loveland were unproven rookies, which leaves room for year-two improvement. Odunze is an above-average receiver. I just do not see a path to the volume he needs to clear 824.5 as the third option. The volume problem. I expect Chicago to remain run-heavy. Going back to Ben Johnson's time in Detroit, he has leaned on the ground game consistently, and the Bears had the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league last year. I do not expect that to change even after losing center Drew Dalman, who they replaced with Garrett Bradbury and second-round rookie Travis Jones. A team that runs this much simply creates fewer passing opportunities to distribute, and that makes it hard for a third option to produce. The player himself. I have held this view through two years of offseason film study. Odunze is an above-average talent, but his lack of high-end athleticism limits how dominant he can be. He is not a receiver I expect to consistently create large separation or generate explosive plays at the rate needed to overcome a modest target share. His 2025 foot injury adds real risk for a player who already struggles to win athletically. Asked about the recovery, he said this: "This is my new normal. And it's not from a standpoint that I'm always in pain but the way my foot broke there's callouses in there that create a different type of foot structure with those bones — different types of things that kind of shift things around. So my new normal is kind of what I am going into." That is not what you want to hear about a player whose breakout is already priced into his season-long number. And the quarterback. Caleb Williams made some absurd plays last season, including several of the best throws in the league, but the highlights masked a quarterback who was inconsistent down to down. I expect his consistency to improve in year two under Johnson. I also expect some of that extreme highlight production to regress toward the mean. That leaves a wide range of outcomes rather than the elite passer the market seems to be pricing. Above-average player, third in line, middle-of-the-pack passing volume. I do not see 825.

Carolina far exceeded expectations last season, winning the NFC South with eight wins. That record was driven by one-score variance, a favorable schedule, and an offense that still has real limitations. Strip the variance out and the underlying performance looked more like a five or six-win team. Now they navigate a significantly harder schedule while already dealing with major injuries. The offensive line is already compromised. Carolina's best unit from last season is missing both starting tackles to begin the year. Ikem Ekwonu is on reserve/PUP with a ruptured patellar tendon and Taylor Moton is on reserve/NFI. That leaves Rasheed Walker at left tackle, an average starter, with rookie Monroe Freeling opposite him — a prospect I viewed as raw. Luke Fortner is expected to replace Cade Mays at center, a considerable downgrade, and swing tackle Brady Christensen is already on IR. Three new starters on the strength of last year's team. That matters because Bryce Young remains the biggest question on the roster. I thought he was better last season and Carolina has done a much better job building an environment around him, but I still view him as a below-average NFL quarterback. He averaged 6.3 yards per attempt last year, 29th in the league, and ranked 28th of 33 qualified starters in EPA per play — against a relatively soft slate of pass defenses. The skill group cannot compensate. Tetairoa McMillan is a legitimate building block and I expect him to keep ascending as a true number one. He accounted for 30.7% of Carolina's receiving yards last season. Jalen Coker has quietly developed into a very useful player. But the room took a major hit when Chris Brazzell suffered a season-ending LCL injury. Brazzell was one of my favourite receiver prospects in the draft and would have provided the one thing this offense desperately needs: explosive-play ability. That leaves Xavier Legette, John Metchie and Coker behind McMillan. Legette still struggles to separate and win as a route runner, and Metchie and David Moore are depth pieces. Questionable quarterback play, a compromised line, limited receiving depth and an offense unlikely to generate real passing volume. That is a difficult formula for wins. The defense is the part I like. Ejiro Evero has done a good job maximising imperfect personnel and the Panthers have finally started giving him pieces that fit. Jaelan Phillips is a legitimate number one edge when healthy and Derrick Brown remains one of the better interior defenders in football. This should be a significantly better front than Carolina has had in years. The problem is depth opposite Phillips. Nic Scourton is out for the season with an ACL and Tershawn Wharton is on reserve/PUP. Patrick Jones is a depth player rather than someone I want featured, and Princely Umanmielen has intriguing pass-rush ability but is not yet a complete three-down player. The secondary is a genuine strength. Jaycee Horn is a legitimate CB1 when healthy, Mike Jackson is an underrated second corner, and Tre'von Moehrig and Nick Scott give Carolina a strong safety tandem. Rookie Zakee Wheatley could outperform expectations. The linebacker room is less convincing — Devin Lloyd brings splash plays and inconsistency, and Trevin Wallace is still a projection. So this defense can be above average. I do not think it is good enough to overcome the other side of the ball. The variance is the whole case. Carolina went 7-3 in one-score games and 6-2 in games decided by a field goal or less. They had three comeback wins despite trailing by a combined 92 points entering the fourth quarter. The defense was flagged only 26 times and the team finished with a +20.11 net penalty EPA. Those are high-variance numbers that swung their way in 2025 and will be extremely difficult to replicate. The point differential tells the real story. Carolina finished at −69, bottom ten in the league. Now that profile has to face a much harder schedule. Their first-place slate is brutal: ten of eleven non-division games come against teams currently priced at 9.5 wins or higher. There is an ugly stretch mid-season with a Monday night road game in Tampa followed by a short-week road game in Minnesota. More broadly, the Panthers face the sharpest year-over-year increase in defensive quality of any team in the league. Last year's environment was almost perfectly suited to a young, limited team — play conservative, run the ball, lean on the defense, win close games against a soft schedule. This year the margin for that approach is much thinner. I actually like what Carolina is building. McMillan looks like a future star. Coker has developed. The line has talent once healthy. Evero is a good coordinator and the secondary has quietly become one of the better parts of the roster. This is a more competitive franchise than it was a few years ago. I just do not think the direction of the team should be confused with its 2026 win total.

Fannin finished his rookie season with 731 yards despite missing a game, playing essentially a full-time role from week one whenever available. That workload is why this number sits where it does. I think his role is much more vulnerable in year two. The physical profile limits him. Fannin is a very small tight end — sub-third percentile in height and weight — and he struggles as an in-line blocker, which limits the situations where Cleveland can comfortably keep him on the field as a traditional Y. That makes him heavily reliant on schemed touches and creation after the catch. He posted a 6.0 ADOT last season, 22nd among tight ends, and played 28.7% of his snaps from the slot. Those slot snaps are exactly what is about to get squeezed. The competition arrived. Cleveland added a first-round and a second-round rookie receiver this offseason. The projected base offense features Jerry Jeudy at Z, KC Concepcion in the slot and Denzel Boston at X. There will be movement and rotation, but the point is that Cleveland now has considerably more competition for targets, particularly the high-value slot snaps and manufactured touches that produced Fannin's rookie year. His target share needs the same context. Fannin commanded 21.36% of targets, fifth among tight ends, but he did it in a friendly environment with very few capable target earners. That changes with Concepcion and Boston, and it changes again with the move from Kevin Stefanski, a coach who has historically featured his tight ends, to Todd Monken and a more vertical passing game. And the offense itself is a problem. Cleveland still has one of the weaker quarterback rooms in the league, and this offense should be near the bottom of the league in total plays run with Myles Garrett gone. Fewer plays means fewer targets and fewer yards. I think the fantasy community has inflated Fannin's actual on-field value and that perception has bled into the prop market. He only needs to regress slightly in target share and playing time for this to become difficult. Given the added competition, his limitations, and the quality of the offense around him, 700.5 is far too high

Taking a shot here, and I think this is a number with a legitimate chance to disappear quickly. Bell was a highly touted prospect with reported first-round buzz before tearing his ACL in his final season at Louisville. In my offseason evaluations I had a second-round grade on him, built around an extremely high ceiling. Opportunity is the reason I am interested. Miami has a wide-open receiving room and Bell has a real path to playing time and targets. In a rebuilding year the Dolphins have already shown a willingness to get young players involved — fellow rookie Caleb Douglas, a third-round pick, established himself as a mainstay starter in their preseason action. I think Bell has the talent to take advantage. His combination of size, explosiveness and YAC ability gives him a path to producing well above his draft position. If he becomes a full-time starter and earns real volume, +8000 looks very interesting for an award driven almost entirely by statistical production. The injury is the concern and also the reason we have this price. Bell practiced in 11-on-11s and is reportedly on track for Week 1 or shortly after. Head coach Jeff Hafley — with a huge grin — told reporters Bell is expected to play in the preseason finale against Atlanta. I would much rather take the health risk at +8000 than wait for the market to get confirmation. If he practices consistently and actually plays, I would not be surprised to see this cut in half or more.

Bell was a highly touted prospect with reported first-round buzz before tearing his ACL in his final season at Louisville. In my offseason evaluations I had a second-round grade on him, built around an extremely high ceiling. Opportunity is the reason I am interested. Miami has a wide-open receiving room and Bell has a real path to playing time and targets. In a rebuilding year the Dolphins have already shown a willingness to get young players involved — fellow rookie Caleb Douglas, a third-round pick, established himself as a mainstay starter in their preseason action. I think Bell has the talent to take advantage. His combination of size, explosiveness and YAC ability gives him a path to producing well above his draft position. If he becomes a full-time starter and earns real volume, +8000 looks very interesting for an award driven almost entirely by statistical production. The injury is the concern and also the reason we have this price. Bell practiced in 11-on-11s and is reportedly on track for Week 1 or shortly after. Head coach Jeff Hafley — with a huge grin — told reporters Bell is expected to play in the preseason finale against Atlanta. I would much rather take the health risk at +8000 than wait for the market to get confirmation. If he practices consistently and actually plays, I would not be surprised to see this cut in half or more.