Looking to jump on early trend I believe continues in 12-team CFP: hot hand. Miami’s defense has been prone to explosive runs while Indiana has the third-most 20+ yard runs in FBS this year. LoS will be a good battle and way to neutralize top pass rushers is to run. Last 6 champions were favored & covered. IU dominated its way to this game while Miami scrapped three close wins. Talent edge IU. Message from Cignetti: Get ahead early on the “road.” Expect equal representation or Hoosier takeover in Miami Gardens, but coaching message still the same. Would love a close title game, not sure that’s what we get.

Black splitting RB reps near 50-50 with Hemby. Has 12+ carries in each of the last four games and in six of last seven. Has seen increase in quality production in the CFP (162 yards, 3 TD). Play on Indiana controlling this game and looking to neutralize pass rush early with run game. Positive game script for the Hoosiers backfield. Anticipate around 30 carries to go around.

Small fun hedge play against heavy Indiana backed card. If Miami is going to win (or play it close), Toney is going to be a catalyst. Dawson gets Toney involved. He has 11 rush attempts in last four games, a few in the red zone. Home town kid playing for a national championship with his home town university in his home town stadium. Longshot for a reason, but a roulette chip to hedge for an all-time Hurricanes upset.