Election Day is less than two weeks away, and the days ahead are only going to get more tense. Early voting, already underway in some states, is providing an early read as to which way the midterms are leaning. Expect news outlets and social platforms like X and Reddit to fill up with takes and predictions about how it will all play out. The early vote is already piling up, and prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, are reacting accordingly.
Before diving in, grab a Kalshi promo code, check out our Kalshi review, and download the Action Network app for more analysis and the latest news.
How Many People Have Voted Early?
CNN’s live election tracker put the national count at more than 20 million ballots cast as of October 22, about 35% of the total early vote recorded across the entire 2022 midterms. Other trackers put the national count closer to 16 or 18 million, since each pulls from a different mix of state reporting and lags behind by a day or more in places. Whichever tracker you check, they all agree on one thing: turnout is running well ahead of where it stood at this point in 2022.
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What changes Saturday in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey and New York?
- Florida: The state’s headline race is the Senate seat, where appointed incumbent Ashley Moody is defending against Democrat Angie Nixon. Florida voters are also deciding a wide-open governor’s race, where Kalshi has Republican Byron Donalds as a heavy favorite over Democrat David Jolly.
- Michigan's Senate race, between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, has the closest projected margin of the four contests tied to this weekend’s expansion.
- New Jersey’s early voting runs October 24 through November 1. Senator Cory Booker is seeking another term there against Republican Justin Murphy.
- New York early voting opens the same day and runs through November 1, a nine-day window set by state law. The top race on the ballot is the governor’s seat, where Kathy Hochul is running for reelection against Republican Bruce Blakeman.
Early-Vote Surges
An Associated Press analysis found early voting up 74% from 2022 in Texas, one of the most competitive Senate races this cycle, where nearly a million ballots had already been cast versus about 550,000 at the same point four years earlier. Texas has drawn outsized national attention this cycle: Elon Musk’s super PAC has put more than $150 million behind Republican Ken Paxton’s campaign against Democrat James Talarico.
The AP also found Republicans making up a smaller share of advance voters in most of those states than they did last cycle, a shift that’s drawn attention in several of this year’s closest Senate races.
If you want to read more about the elections, check out our midterms predictions and visit Prediction Pro.
What Does Early Vote Actually Tell Us?
Despite all the takes flooding social media, and even expert opinions, none of that guarantees how November 3 plays out. ABC News cautions that early voting numbers are only one piece of the puzzle: they say little about whether lower-propensity voters from either party show up later, and Republicans have historically favored voting in person on Election Day itself. Strong early numbers can point to enthusiasm, but they’re not the finished picture until the last votes are in.
Senate Odds | House Odds
The early vote data lines up with what the prediction markets are showing. Republicans currently control both chambers, and Democrats need net gains to flip either one.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats are trading as roughly two-thirds favorites to win Senate control and close to nine-in-ten favorites to win the House. The state-level markets tell a similar story: Michigan’s Senate race has the closest projected margin of the four, tied to Saturday’s early voting expansion, while Florida’s Senate seat, New York’s governor’s race and New Jersey’s Senate seat each show one side as a heavy favorite. Those prices move with the news, so they can shift before Election Day, but for now they point the same direction as the ballots already cast.
