The Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race both have Republicans as heavy favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the polling has been far messier than the prices suggest.
- Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon all have live Florida Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and Kalshi also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Jolly vs Donalds polls run from a flat tie to double-digit Donalds leads, while Moody vs Nixon polls range from a dead heat to a 10-point Moody edge.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (22¢) | $454.55 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (23¢) | $434.78 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Florida contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Florida Governor race market and the Senate market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket prices Donalds as a 4-to-1 favorite, and the gap between that number and the October polling is the central story in this race.
Byron Donalds (YES 80¢ / NO 22¢, -2 pts)
Donalds gave back 2 points on the board, even with a Trump endorsement, a fundraising lead that included a record $22 million quarter to open 2026, and a Republican registration edge of roughly 1.5 million voters.
The polling mostly supports him, with Stetson University showing him up 52-41 and the James Madison Institute giving him a 52-42 lead, and Decision Desk HQ recently moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
David Jolly (YES 22¢ / NO 80¢, +2 pts)
Jolly gained 2 points, and the Jolly vs Donalds polls are the reason traders haven't written him off.
Change Research had the two tied at 47% and a St. Pete Polls survey found a 45-45 dead heat, with Jolly leading among independents 49% to 33% in that poll.
He is hoping to become the first elected Democratic governor in Florida since 1994.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Ashley Moody as a strong favorite in the special election for the seat Marco Rubio held for 14 years.
Ashley Moody (YES 89¢ / NO 13¢, -3 pts)
Moody slipped 3 points, mirroring Nixon's gain on the board.
She is the appointed incumbent, Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, and the Moody vs Nixon polls back the favorite in most cases, including a Mason-Dixon survey for NBC 6 that had her ahead 50-40.
Angie Nixon (YES 13¢ / NO 89¢, +3 pts)
Nixon, a progressive state representative from Jacksonville, won the August 18 Democratic primary over Alex Vindman despite raising a fraction of his money.
A St. Pete Polls survey had the race at 45.2% for Moody and 44.8% for Nixon, a far tighter margin than a 13¢ price implies.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has already topped $1.89 million in volume.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board sits within a cent of Polymarket on both candidates, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 4.7 points.
Byron Donalds (YES 79¢ / NO 22¢, -2 pts)
Donalds dropped 2 points on Kalshi, matching the move on Polymarket, and 79¢ is the softest price on either exchange.
The NBC 6 Mason-Dixon poll still has him ahead 48-41, helped by a 55% to 33% edge among men.
David Jolly (YES 23¢ / NO 78¢, +2 pts)
Jolly gained 2 points, and the board shows a small quirk: a Donalds NO at 22¢ is cheaper than a Jolly YES at 23¢, even though a Jolly win is the main way that Donalds NO pays.
That gap is structural, since NO on the favorite pays on any other outcome, including a third candidate, while Jolly's YES pays only if he wins and trades on a thinner order book.
His case rests on women, who back him 49% to 41% in the Mason-Dixon poll, and on independents.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi has Moody a cent firmer than Polymarket, with a margin forecast of Republican +8.5.
Ashley Moody (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢, -2.7 pts)
Moody slipped 2.7 points, the steepest drop on either Kalshi board.
An 8.5-point forecast lines up with the University of North Florida's 50-42 result and the 10-point Mason-Dixon lead, and Quantus Insights had her ahead 50-43.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 90¢, +2.7 pts)
Nixon gained 2.7 points, though Kalshi still prices her 2¢ below Polymarket.
Mason-Dixon found her leading Moody 41% to 35% among independents, with 8% of that group backing independent Neil Gillespie.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite on the board, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is the next most likely, and both outcomes involving a Nixon win are long shots.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and it prices all four possible pairings, though the market is thin at roughly $9,200 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 79¢ | NO 25¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 14¢ | NO 89¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 8¢ | NO 96¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 6¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor and Senate Races
The two boards agree on every favorite. Donalds sits at YES 80¢ on Polymarket and YES 79¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 89¢ and YES 90¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Jolly trades at YES 22¢ on Polymarket and YES 23¢ on Kalshi, and Nixon is at YES 13¢ and YES 11¢.
The friendlier exchange for Democrats flips between the two races. Kalshi gives Jolly an extra cent in the Governor race, while Polymarket gives Nixon an extra 2¢ in the Senate race, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Jolly vs Donalds polls have ranged from Stetson's 52-41 Donalds lead to a 47-47 tie in Change Research's survey, yet neither board has Donalds below YES 79¢.
Moody vs Nixon polls show a similar spread, from Mason-Dixon's 10-point Moody lead to St. Pete Polls' 45.2-44.8 result, but both markets still treat her as a strong favorite at YES 89¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on the two races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges moved in lockstep on the Florida Governor election, with Donalds down 2 points and Jolly up 2 on both, a sign that traders are trimming the favorite as the split polling sinks in.
That dispersion is the whole story. Stetson (+11), the James Madison Institute (+10) and Mason-Dixon (+7) all have Donalds comfortably ahead, YouGov has him up just 47-45, and both Change Research and St. Pete Polls show a tie.
The Senate board moved more. Moody gave back 3 points on Polymarket and 2.7 on Kalshi, even though she has led most surveys this fall and the St. Pete Polls result showing a near tie is the main outlier.
The combo board adds one more read. A Donalds and Moody sweep at 79¢ matches Donalds' standalone price on Kalshi, which treats a Moody win as close to automatic if Donalds wins, and the 93¢ implied by adding the two Moody pairings sits above her 90¢ Senate price, a gap worth discounting given how thin the combo market is.
The next round of Jolly vs Donalds polls and Moody vs Nixon polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with the first early voting numbers. The vote-by-mail request deadline is October 22, and early voting runs October 24 through October 31, with some counties opening as early as October 19.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (22¢) | $454.55 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (23¢) | $434.78 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with different levels of risk: a Florida Governor election where the polls are split between a tie and a double-digit Donalds lead, and a Senate race where Moody has led most surveys but both exchanges have trimmed her price.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Donalds and Moody sweep is the dominant outcome on Kalshi, and the next batch of polling and early voting turnout is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 80¢ on Polymarket and 79¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 22¢ on Polymarket and 23¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 89¢ on Polymarket and 90¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 13¢ and 11¢, respectively.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The polls are split. Stetson University has Donalds ahead 52-41 and the James Madison Institute has him up 52-42, while Change Research shows a 47-47 tie and St. Pete Polls shows a 45-45 dead heat.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 has Moody ahead 50-40, Quantus Insights had her up 50-43, and a St. Pete Polls survey found her ahead by just 45.2% to 44.8%.
How do Jolly vs Donalds polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling average suggests, with both exchanges keeping Donalds between 79¢ and 80¢ even though two recent polls show a tie.
Are Moody vs Nixon polls tightening before Election Day?
Results vary by pollster. Some surveys show Moody up seven to ten points, while St. Pete Polls shows a near tie, and both exchanges moved Nixon up by 2.7 to 3 points to 11¢ and 13¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. Small gaps like Donalds at 80¢ versus 79¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 79¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 14¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 8¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 6¢.
When does early voting start for the Florida Governor election?
Early voting runs October 24 through October 31, though some counties begin as early as October 19, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
