I'ts Election Day and polls are open across the country: prediction markets are now showing some of the most one-sided numbers of the entire cycle. On Kalshi, traders are pricing a Democratic Senate and a near-certain Democratic House, both well above where either chamber stood even a month ago. Here’s where the main contracts stand as voting gets underway, which races are genuinely still up for grabs, and a few things worth checking before trading any of them today.
Senate control: Democrats at a record 74% as polls open
On Monday afternoon, with one day left before Election Day, Kalshi’s Senate control contract hit 74% for Democrats: its highest reading since trading opened on the race, while Polymarket showed a close 73%. Kalshi’s seat-count market pointed to a 53-47 Democratic Senate, a full reversal of the chamber’s current 53-47 Republican split.
By Tuesday morning, that number had climbed again, to 76% on Kalshi’s live contract. The move wasn’t limited to the marquee national number, either: Texas alone rose to 74% from 68.4% over the prior 24 hours, according to CNBC. A Senate contract pricing this lopsided would have been hard to imagine a year ago in a chamber Republicans control outright.
That shift doesn’t mean a Democratic win is locked in: it means traders are pricing in a pattern that tends to repeat in midterms. The president’s party almost always loses ground when voters aren’t choosing a president, and right now the market doesn’t see this cycle as an exception.
The closest markets today: Iowa and Kansas
Not every race looks settled. Iowa remains close to a coin flip: Kalshi has Democrat Josh Turek with a narrow edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, within a few points either way. On Polymarket, that race jumped from 42% to 50% in the past day, according to CNBC, tightening right as voters head to the polls.
Kansas tells a different story. Democrat Adam Hamilton is actually a favorite there, around 63% on Kalshi against Sen. Roger Marshall. Polymarket’s price for a Hamilton win jumped from 52% to 63% in a single day, per CNBC, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
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Races where markets and final polls disagree
Not everyone is pricing the Senate as confidently as the markets are. FiftyPlusOne, a model built by former FiveThirtyEight staffers, gives Democrats a 65% shot at a Senate majority, while Decision DeskHQ is more cautious, putting the odds closer to 51% as of late October.
The Cook Political Report, meanwhile, still counts seven races (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas) as toss-ups.
That caution doesn’t carry over to individual contests, though. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, Roy Cooper’s bid in North Carolina and Jon Ossoff’s reelection in Georgia sit at 97% to 98%, practically settled by market standards even in a cycle several forecasters are still treating as unsettled. The polls vs prediction markets watch continues.
Independent models land somewhere in between. Nate Silver’s FLIPR forecast calls Democrats clear favorites for the Senate without quite calling it certain, and projects the House popular vote at a Democratic edge of about 7.9 points: a touch more cautious than some of the pricing on the trading platforms.
Heavy favorites: North Carolina, Georgia and Minnesota
Three races look close to locked up as voting gets underway.
| Race | Kalshi odds (Nov. 3) | Projected margin |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 98% – Whatley 2% | D +13.6 |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 97% – Collins 3% | D +12.1 |
| Minnesota Senate | Flanagan 91% – Tafoya 9% | D +7.4 |
Cooper is on track to flip the open North Carolina seat by a wide margin, and Ossoff looks positioned to hold his Georgia seat for a second term despite heavy Republican spending in the state. In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan carries a similar lead over Michele Tafoya for the seat Tina Smith is vacating. None of these are mathematically decided before votes are counted, but traders clearly aren’t treating them as close contests.
House control and seat-count markets
The House picture looks even more one-sided than the Senate. Kalshi’s House control contract sits at 94% Democratic, and on Polymarket, a full Democratic sweep of both chambers is priced at 74%, with a split outcome: a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, at 23%. Kalshi’s own version of that combined contract shows similar numbers: a sweep near 77%, with the split scenario at 23%.
Beneath the headline figure, Kalshi’s seat-level breakdown favors Democrats in 241 of the 435 House districts, comfortably clear of the 218 needed for a majority, with roughly a dozen seats still rated true toss-ups. Across its Senate, House and governor contracts combined, Kalshi says more than $438 million has traded this cycle.
If you want to read more about politics and elections, visit Prediction Proand read our midterms predictions.
Last-minute checklist: fees, liquidity and resolution rules
A few things worth checking before trading any of these contracts today:
- Fees vary by platform and by price. Kalshi charges a per-contract fee tied to how close a price sits to 50 cents; Polymarket moved to a similar price-based fee structure this year, which tends to land lower on lopsided contracts and higher near a true coin flip.
- Liquidity thins out fast outside the headline contracts. The national Senate and House markets carry tens of millions of dollars in volume, but a single large order can move a smaller state race meaningfully: worth checking the order book before trading something thinner, like Kansas or Minnesota.
- Resolution isn’t instant. Most contracts don’t pay out the moment a network calls a race; full settlement typically waits on official certification, which can take days or weeks. Read each market’s specific resolution rule rather than assuming a call on TV means an immediate payout.
- Some election offices are opting out. Officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, and Delaware County, Pennsylvania, have barred their own employees from trading contracts at prediction markets tied to races they help administer, citing concerns about insider information.
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