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The 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections are tomorrow, and voters are starting to watch the clock. Of course, votes cannot be fully tallied until polling places close, so read on for our guide to 2026's Senate race results and top trades to make at prediction marketstop trades to make at prediction markets.
Poll Closing Times for Key Senate States
Most polling locations for battleground states close within an hour of each other.
In Georgia, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, voting closes at 6pm et, with North Carolina and Ohio trailing behind at 6:30pm. Most of the action happens at 7pm when Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas polls close. Iowa follows behind at 8pm, and Alaska brings up the rear with final ballots being cast at midnight eastern time.
The time between the end of polling and the declaration of a winner can vary. For most elections, expect results to be announced by midnight, if not within the first hour or two. Some states, like Alaska, use ranked choice voting, which can also take longer to tabulate.
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First Calls to Watch: Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio
The earliest results to check for will be from Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Current polling datapolling data forecasts smooth victories for two democratic candidates in these states. In the Peach State, incumbent Jon Ossoff leads Republican challenger Mike Collins 54-46, according to ActiVote. North Carolina polling has Roy Cooper leading with an even more sizeable gap, showing a 57-43 advantage over Michael Whatley.
Ohio, in usual Ohio fashion, is not so clear cut. Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted have been neck-and-neck in most polls, with ActiVote putting Brown ahead by only 0.2%.
Michigan, Texas, and Maine: When Results Start Arriving
Results should start heating up around 8pm, and if current polls from MS NOW are accurate, the Senate may start to swing Blue.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is leading GOP candidate Mike Rogers by 5% in the polls. Democrat James Talarico is similarly outpacing Ken Paxton by four points in Texas' senate race, and Troy Jackson leads Republican Susan Collins 51-46 in Maine.
Iowa and Kansas: Late-Evening Results
Once the votes from these two states are tallied, the party controlling the Senate may very well be decided. Despite voting ending at 7pm in Kansas, the state uses ranked choice voting, similar to Alaska, so expect results to be a touch slow coming in.
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are well within the margin of error, as Turek leads Hinson by 0.3%, according to MS Now. In Kansas, a race which was even only days ago has seen Democrat Adam Hamilton surge to a three-point lead over Roger Marshall in polling.
Alaska: Results Arrive Early Wednesday
MS Now has Alaska's race as one of the closest in the nation, with Democrat Mary Peltola holding a 1.7% edge over incumbent Dan Sullivan. NPR’s guide puts Alaska’s close at 1 a.m. ET, so expect results to arrive early Wednesday morning on the East Coast.Â
Why Prediction Market Prices can Move on Election Night
By this stage of the process, polling has generally closed regarding the 2026 elections; there is not time left to garner and cross-reference meaningful survey results. However, buzz surrounding candidates will certainly rise and fall over the next day, so expect prediction markets to be dynamic until winners are declared.
