With polls opening Tuesday, prediction markets are drawing a clear picture of where several of the country’s closest governor’s races stand. Four contests stand out heading into Election Day: Ohio, where an ad controversy reshaped the race in its final two weeks; Georgia, which spent most of October as a toss-up before breaking one way; Iowa, where Democrats found an unexpected pickup opportunity; and California, where one of the country’s most lopsided races is still pulling in real trading volume.
| Race | Democrat | Republican |
| Ohio | Amy Acton — 82% | Vivek Ramaswamy — 19% |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms — 71% | Rick Jackson — 30% |
| Iowa | Rob Sand — 88% | Zach Lahn — 13% |
| California | Xavier Becerra — 99% | Steve Hilton — 1% |
Odds via Polymarket, as of Nov. 2, 2026.
Ohio Governor race: Acton vs. Ramaswamy after the ad backlash
Ohio’s race turned on a single ad. Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy ran a spot featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother disputing Acton’s account of a childhood that included homelessness and abuse. The ad split Ohio Republicans. Governor Mike DeWine, who had endorsed Ramaswamy, called it “deeply, deeply troubling” and urged him to pull it, while President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance both defended it in public remarks.
The backlash also brought Acton money, including a $500,000 donation from MK Pritzker, wife of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. Polls had shown Acton with a narrow lead before the ad aired; afterward, her market price widened considerably. Heading into Election Day, she’s priced at 82% on Polymarket to Ramaswamy’s 19%.
Our top prediction market picks for the 2026 midterm elections are live!
Georgia Governor race: Bottoms vs. Jackson in the final stretch
Georgia looked close for most of the fall, and the polls held that way longer than prediction markets did. As of November 1, Georgia’s polling average still had Republican businessman Rick Jackson narrowly ahead of Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, 47.7% to 47.1%, according to polling tracker PollCheck. Jackson is running to succeed term-limited Governor Brian Kemp.
By then, though, early voting was already breaking records. More than 2.3 million Georgians cast ballots in person before Election Day, with strong early turnout in groups that typically lean Democratic. Prediction markets followed that signal: Bottoms has climbed to 71% on Polymarket, a wide swing from the near-even numbers that defined most of the campaign.
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Iowa Governor race: Rob Sand’s best shot at a pickup
Iowa wasn’t supposed to be this competitive. Republicans have held the governor’s office since 2011, but Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek reelection left the seat open, and Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand built a lead that both public polling and prediction markets now treat as close to settled. A Rasmussen survey had him up 48% to 44.4% over Republican businessman Zach Lahn, and on Polymarket he’s trading at 88%.
NPR’s own election-night preview names Iowa as Democrats’ strongest shot at flipping a governor’s office this cycle, pointing to Sand’s success building a campaign around practical, local issues rather than national party fights. The same guide puts Michigan in similar territory, with Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson favored over Republican Rep. John James: in line with that state’s polling average, where Benson led James 49% to 42.4%.
California Governor and Los Angeles mayor: among the busiest markets
Not every race on the ballot is close, but that hasn’t kept traders away. Kalshi recorded roughly $628,000 in 24-hour trading volume on California’s governor race and $592,000 on the Los Angeles mayor’s race in the days before the election, among the most active markets of the entire midterm cycle and trailing only the Texas Senate contest.
California’s outcome isn’t really in question. Democratic Attorney General Xavier Becerra is priced near 99% against Republican commentator Steve Hilton on Polymarket. Los Angeles’ mayoral runoff has more texture: incumbent Karen Bass is favored at roughly 70% over challenger Spencer Pratt, the former reality TV personality who has kept the race from becoming a formality.
If you want to read more about politics and elections, visit Prediction Proand read our midterms predictions.
Final-day checklist: what to check before trading a governor’s race
Before trading any of these markets on Election Eve, it helps to run through a short list:
- Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket. The same race can show a few points of difference between platforms.
- Check when a contract last traded. Thin volume can leave stale prices sitting on the board.
- Weigh polling against market pricing. Georgia spent weeks as a toss-up in public polls even as the market moved toward Bottoms.
- Watch turnout reports as they come in Tuesday night. Early counts from Ohio and Georgia tend to post first and can move prices quickly.
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