Iowa Election Polls & Betting Odds: Trump Slightly Favored Over Biden

Iowa Election Polls & Betting Odds: Trump Slightly Favored Over Biden article feature image
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Scott Olson/Getty Images. Pictured: Donald Trump.

Iowa Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Donald Trump
-175
58.7%
Joe Biden
+125
41.3%

Odds as of Oct. 16 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Joe Biden’s +125 odds mean a $100 bet would net $125 if he wins Iowa. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Iowa Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
47.7%
Donald Trump
47.4%

538 Iowa Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Donald Trump
58%
Joe Biden
42%

Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 16 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Iowa Presidential Race Updates

Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Donald Trump a 58.7% implied probability of winning Iowa compared to Joe Biden’s 41.3% implied probability.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, has Trump winning 58 out of every 100 times compared to Biden’s 42. The site’s average of polls reflect that Biden has an incredibly narrow advantage, though, with him at 47.7% compared to the President’s 47.4%.


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Iowa has six of the 538 total electoral votes in the country.

Trump won comfortably in Iowa over Hillary Clinton, claiming 51.1% of the vote to Clinton’s 41.7%. It was a wide margin for a state that Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, the latter of which saw Obama win by 5.9%. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes in 2016 compared to Clinton’s 227.