Colombia’s upcoming presidential election on Sunday, May 31, is defined by deep structural divisions and a cloud of uncertainty. While traditional polling suggests a technical tie in the first round between leftist Senator Iván Cepeda and far-right firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella, prediction markets like Kalshi are telling a different story, with traders positioning themselves for a clear favorite in the final count.
Since a 2015 constitutional amendment abolished presidential reelection, current President Gustavo Petro — in office since 2022 — is legally barred from seeking a second term. This has left a power vacuum that has fueled extreme polarization. Unlike previous cycles, the campaign has been notably devoid of debates, and the political fragmentation suggests a runoff election on June 21 is almost inevitable.
It is with this June date in mind that traders are moving capital in the Kalshi market: “Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?”
Who Will Win the Election in Colombia According to the Polls?
Of the 13 officially registered candidates, only three have garnered significant support in recent polls. However, none are currently projected to reach the "50% plus one" threshold required to win outright on Sunday.
The latest surveys show Cepeda, representing the ruling Pacto Histórico coalition, leading with support between 33% and 44%. He is followed by De la Espriella, an "outsider" candidate from the Defensores de la Patria movement, whose polling fluctuates between 25% and 31%.
In third place is Paloma Valencia of the right-wing Centro Democrático. At approximately 13%, her goal of becoming Colombia’s first female president remains a long shot, while the remaining candidates struggle to clear the 3% mark.
Kalshi Odds vs. Polls: The Strategy of Alliances
De la Espriella: Why "The Tiger" is Pouncing on Kalshi
While Cepeda leads the polls, De la Espriella dominates the forecast on Kalshi. The 47-year-old lawyer, who styles himself as “The Tiger” and aligns politically with Donald Trump, currently holds a projected win probability of approximately 67% in the prediction market. The "Yes" contract for his presidency has more than quadrupled in value over the past two months.
The discrepancy between the polls and the prediction market lies in the logic of future alliances. If Paloma Valencia finishes third, her voters become the "holy grail" for the remaining two candidates. Given that her party's ideology aligns far more closely with De la Espriella than with Cepeda, traders view the lawyer as the natural beneficiary of a consolidated right-wing front.
However, market participants are weighing risks: voter sentiment rarely transfers seamlessly, and the Colombian right remains fractured. Valencia recently mocked De la Espriella’s security measures, stating she doesn’t need "bulletproof vests," while De la Espriella has accused her of being part of the "traditional elites."
Iván Cepeda: Can the "Petro Heir" Build a Majority?
The Kalshi contract for an Iván Cepeda victory is currently trading around 35 cents, having swung between 74 and 18 cents throughout the campaign.
While Cepeda is favored to win the first round, his path to power depends on the margin of his lead. He has already secured endorsements from former Governor Carlos Caicedo and former Senator Roy Barreras. However, with both politicians forecasting at 1% or less, these alliances may not provide the necessary momentum to reach a majority.
To win, the man his rivals call "Petro’s heir" must win over centrist and moderate right-wing voters — a task that currently looks more like a utopia than a reality. Viewed with suspicion for his radical platform, Cepeda’s success depends on concessions he might be unwilling to make.
Who Will Win the Colombian Runoff According to the Polls?
When projecting a head-to-head second round, the data suggests a nail-biting finish that slightly favors the right. In a direct matchup between De la Espriella and Cepeda, the former holds a slight edge (43.6% to 40.9%). While this 2.7-point gap is within the margin of error, it marks a significant shift: for the first time in the cycle, the far-right candidate is now the most likely final winner according to both late-stage polls and market traders.
If the runoff were to feature Cepeda against Valencia, the margin narrows to just 1.7 points in favor of the leftist.
As Sunday’s vote approaches, the only certainty is that the first round is merely a prelude to a much larger political and economic battle in June.
