President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran during his lengthy State of the Union address directly moved the odds of a near-term nuclear deal.
The probability of an agreement before April had been hovering near 34% on Kalshi, but dropped to around 20% after the annual address.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction on when a potential U.S.–Iran nuclear deal could be signed, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to place predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds
“My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror — which they are by far — to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told in the SOTU address in front of a joint session of Congress.
The president invoked Operation Midnight Hammer, which struck several nuclear facilities eight months ago, to underscore that the United States has already acted against Iran’s program. “Yet they continue starting it all over. We wiped it out, and they want to start all over again — and are, at this moment again, pursuing their sinister ambitions,” he said.
While Trump revealed little about his intentions toward Iran, his remarks pushed down “yes” contracts on a deal before April. The market for a possible agreement before August also slipped, though more modestly, by about 1%.
By contrast, longer-term contracts for a deal before year’s end rose from 49% to 56% in a few hours.
Representatives from both countries continue talks in Geneva in an effort to ease tensions and avoid a new regional war. But tensions are rising alongside the largest U.S. deployment of aircraft and warships to the Middle East in decades.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most of the 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
