It was a historic night for Democrats. What pollsters had been calling a blue wave looked, by the time the votes were counted, closer to a tsunami. The party took back strongholds Republicans had held for a generation: Texas hadn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 38 years, and it did on Tuesday.
A sitting president’s party almost always loses ground in a midterm, but for Donald Trump this one cut deeper. He lost both chambers of Congress in a single night and now faces the real possibility of a third impeachment. Prediction markets, which called most of Tuesday’s races correctly, are already pricing in that risk.
Democrats flip the House: what it means for a third Trump impeachment
Democrats took back both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterms. Networks called the House first, with the Senate flip following in the overnight count, handing the party full control of Capitol Hill for the first time since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
The sweep included a few races that already read as impeachment indicators on their own. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico unseated Republican Ken Paxton after both campaigns combined to spend $573.2 million on ads, a record for a Senate race, according to CNN.
Maine Republican Susan Collins lost her seat after three decades in office. CNN commentator Van Jones called the overall result “the repudiation of Trumpism that people have been hoping for.”
That House majority is the piece that matters most for impeachment talk, since nothing moves there without one. Trump’s own reaction mixed rare grace with distance. In a phone interview with Fox News, he said:
“Well, I say this: congratulations to the Democrats. They did a good job. They’ve been looking for this one for 11 years, and they finally got it. But I don’t view it as a hit on me.”
He also acknowledged that the stalled war with Iran “was a part of it,” while adding that voters still understood “the importance of what I’ve done with Iran.” Trump said he was ready to work with the new Congress “on many things.” On Truth Social, his tone shifted: he wrote that he “wasn’t on the Ballot” and would have won “IN A LANDSLIDE” if he had been, then moved on to blaming Fox News and individual Republican candidates for the losses.
New: Jon Ossof sees massive boost in 2028 Democratic Nomination odds
Trump impeachment odds today: before 2028, before March 2027 and removal
Kalshi’s impeachment contracts moved fast once results came in. As of Wednesday:
- House impeaches Trump before April 1, 2027: 44%
- House impeaches Trump before May 1, 2027: 54%
- House impeaches Trump before July 1, 2027: 65%
- Trump impeached and removed from office: 29.9%, up 15.7 points on the day
Those numbers mark a clear jump from where the market sat heading into the vote. In early October, Kalshi priced Trump’s odds of impeachment before 2028 at 66%, removal at 17%, and impeachment before March 2027 at 26%. Prices move with the news cycle, so expect these figures to keep shifting as the new Congress takes shape.
Don't forget to grab the Kalshi promo code, read our Kalshi review, and download the Action Network app for more news and analysis.
What Jeffries and Democratic leaders have said about impeachment
Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat in line to become House Speaker, asked about it before the election, told MS NOW that Democrats “haven’t ruled anything out,” then added: “And we haven’t ruled anything in.”
That careful phrasing held through election night, with party leaders pointing instead to an oversight agenda built around investigations into Trump administration officials and, according to reporting in The Atlantic, members of the president’s family.
Read: Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican Nominee in 2028?
The Hegseth impeachment push that was delayed until after the midterms
The clearest impeachment test already sitting in the new Congress doesn’t involve Trump directly. Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie filed articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in September. Speaker Mike Johnson responded by sending the House into an early recess, pushing any vote on Massie’s resolution past the midterms. Massie accused GOP leaders of dodging a vote; Johnson dismissed the whole effort as a “stunt.” With Democrats now holding the gavel, that resolution, or something like it, could get a floor vote for the first time.
Want to read more about politics and elections? Visit Prediction Proand our midterms predictions.
How impeachment works: a House majority, then two-thirds of the Senate
Impeachment happens in two separate steps, and mixing them up is the easiest way to misread these numbers.
- The House can approve articles of impeachment with a simple majority, a bar Democrats can now clear on their own.
- Conviction and removal require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, where Republicans still hold enough seats to block it even after losing their majority.
This explains why the removal contract trades so much lower than the impeachment ones.
The case for a House vote is straightforward: Democrats control the chamber, have an obvious political incentive, and already have Hegseth-related groundwork sitting in committee.
The case against removal is just as simple: no Senate Republican has signaled they would cross the aisle on a two-thirds vote, and that math hasn’t changed since Tuesday.
What could move the odds: oversight hearings and the new Congress
A few things will decide whether these numbers keep climbing or cool off. The new Congress isn’t seated until January 3, and a freshly sworn-in House rarely moves on impeachment in its first weeks. Oversight hearings, on tariffs, on the administration’s handling of the war with Iran, and on other fronts Democrats have reportedly been building files on for months, are likely to come first.
How those hearings land could decide whether impeachment turns into a real floor fight or stays a talking point. Jeffries has said Democrats plan to bring a round of bills to the floor within 100 hours of taking control, which gives an early read on where the new majority’s energy goes before impeachment itself comes up for a vote.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
