With control of the Senate in the hands of American voters today, every seat counts. The narrative of the past few days, especially concerning prediction markets, is the possibility of a Blue sweep.
However, Senate races in states like South Carolina and Nebraska could come down to just a couple of counties leaning one direction or another. With thousands of votes already cast in these elections, let's see how the results from the Palmetto and Cornhusker states could affect the congressional battle on Election Day.
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South Carolina Senate Race: Darline Graham at 69% Kalshi Odds
Prediction markets tend to make election predictions appear obvious, and the situation is no different for South Carolina's Senate Race. Incumbent Republican Darline Graham is sitting at 69 cents on Kalshi and 70% on Polymarket.
However, the gap between Graham and challenger Annie Andrews has shrunk from 72.2% to 38% on Kalshi over the past month. The distance between the two on Polymarket sits at 40%.
Polls, on the other hand, indicate something nearer to a tie, a Policy Council poll lists the race in favor of Graham 47–46, while a Citadel poll suggests 42–39 among likely voters.
Nebraska Senate Race: Ricketts Favored at Kalshi
Nebraska is another state where prediction markets heavily favor one candidate. Republican Pete Ricketts, the Nebraskan incumbent, is at 70 cents on Kalshi, while indepent Dan Osborn follows behind at 28%. The projected margin on Kalshi is Republican +2.6 points.
If you want to read more about politics and elections, visit Prediction Proand read our midterms predictions.
Why Independent Candidates Complicate Nebraska’s Market
Osborn has said he would not caucus with either party if elected. With no competitive Democratic candidate to choose, it remains to be seen how frequently left-leaning voters will make appearances at the polls, as well as whether they will find the Republican or the independent candidate more attractive.
Last-minute Checklist: What to Check Before Trading These Races
Keep an eye on the margin of victory markets for both of these races before choosing to trade. The "Who Will Win" markets can make a race seem cut and dry, but the margins for both of these are under three points, well within the margin of error.
Nebraska Senate Race Summary
Nebraska’s race pits Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts, appointed to the seat in 2023 and elected to finish the term in 2024, against independent Dan Osborn, a mechanic and union leader who nearly upset Senator Deb Fischer in 2024 before falling just short. Democrats opted not to field their own candidate; their nominee withdrew, clearing the lane for Osborn as the de facto Democratic-aligned alternative in this deep-red state.
The race has seesawed in the polls: a mid-September read had Osborn ahead, a YouGov survey in early October showed him up 48-47, then Ricketts retook the lead in mid-October, and a late-October NYT/Siena poll had him up 49-43. Trump personally traveled to Nebraska to campaign for Ricketts amid backlash over a beef-import controversy, and the Senate Leadership Fund committed an extra $8 million to shore up his campaign after Osborn’s team saw senior staff departures.
Despite the back-and-forth polling, both prediction markets and most professional forecasters have kept Ricketts a clear favorite, pricing him in the low-to-mid 70s throughout October, and Cook Political Report still rates the race Solid Republican — a reminder that a close poll or two hasn’t been enough to make forecasters call this one competitive.
South Carolina Senate Race Summary
South Carolina’s race was upended by tragedy: longtime Senator Lindsey Graham died suddenly in July 2026 from what was later determined to be an aortic rupture, just weeks after winning his Republican primary. State law triggered a special election process, and Republicans nominated Darline Graham — the senator’s sister, whom he had legally adopted after their parents’ deaths — with Trump’s direct endorsement, over Representative Ralph Norman in a runoff.
She now faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the November 3 special general election. Andrews has significantly outraised expectations for a Democrat in a state this red, and South Carolina Democrats are fielding candidates in every statewide race for the first time in modern history. That fundraising surge has drawn national attention and repriced the race somewhat, with Graham’s market probability easing from the mid-80s down into the mid-70s by late October, even as professional forecasters still rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican. It remains one of the wider gaps between prediction-market pricing and the closest public polling anywhere on the 2026 board.
