Prediction markets are often used to forecast election outcomes or economic events, but a market currently live on Polymarket offers something a little more unusual: real-money odds on who President Donald Trump will publicly insult before the end of the month.
The market, which is titled "Who Will Trump publicly insult by April 30?", opened on April 13, 2026, and has drawn over $17,000 in trading volume across 17 individual sub-markets, each covering a different potential target. The results are as revealing as they are entertaining.
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Joe Biden is the Near-Certain Favorite
At 89% odds, traders overwhelmingly expect Trump to publicly insult former President Joe Biden before April 30. This comes as little surprise, as Biden has been one of Trump's most reliably targeted figures across both his first and second terms. With $3,997 in trading volume, the Biden sub-market is by far the most actively traded, suggesting strong conviction from bettors. At 90 cents per "Yes" share, there's very little money to be made tailing this one.
Obama at 56%: A Coin Flip with Historical Precedent
Barack Obama comes in second at 56%, essentially a toss-up. Trump and Obama have had a long and well-documented rhetorical rivalry, and with two weeks left in the window, traders seem genuinely uncertain whether an insult will materialize before the month's end.
The Surprising Wildcards: MTG, Starmer, and Tucker
Yes 94% · No 7%
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Perhaps the most intriguing part of the market is who appears in the middle tier. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fellow Republican, sits at 50%, suggesting traders see a near-even chance that Trump turns on one of his former allies. This reflects the well-documented tensions between the two after Greene mounted a brief primary challenge earlier in the cycle.
Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, sits at 45%, likely driven by ongoing transatlantic friction over trade and foreign policy. Tucker Carlson, another former ally turned occasional critic, comes in at 29%, while Candace Owens and Megyn Kelly hover in the 30s.
The "Untouchables": Musk, Vance, Putin, and Xi
The market's low-probability tail tells its own story about Trump's political alliances and diplomatic positioning. Elon Musk and J.D. Vance both sit at just around 5% and 1%, respectively, essentially negligible. Vladimir Putin (2%) and Xi Jinping (1%) are priced as near-impossibilities, reflecting the market's read that Trump would not publicly disparage either leader regardless of geopolitical circumstances.
Perhaps most striking: Melania Trump is listed as a possible outcome and sits at just 1%, with $2,371 having been traded on that sub-market, suggesting some traders found it worth engaging with — even at extreme odds.
Pope Leo XIV: The Freshest Data Point
The market context notes that Trump reportedly attacked Pope Leo XIV on April 13, the same day the market opened, calling him "weak on crime" and "terrible" on foreign policy after the Pope criticized U.S. military actions. Despite this, the dedicated Pope Leo XIV sub-market sits at 26% (with a separate "Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?" market at 28%), suggesting traders may be uncertain whether the April 13 attack qualifies under the specific resolution rules, or whether they expect only one such incident.
How the Market Resolves
Traders who are well-versed in how Polymarket works can attest to the fact that understanding how a market resolves is possibly the most important piece of making a trade.
For this market, the resolution criteria are fairly precise: Trump must make a public statement that insults, mocks, or personally attacks a listed individual in a "clearly negative manner." This includes derogatory nicknames, calling someone "stupid" or "weak," or using the negative form of a positive trait in a personal way. Policy disagreements without disparaging language do not qualify. Verification will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
What This Market Tells Us
Beyond the entertainment value, this market offers a few genuine insights. First, prediction markets like Polymarket have shown strong accuracy on political events; the platform claims a one-month accuracy score of 94%. Second, the odds here implicitly reflect something real: that Trump's rhetorical patterns are legible enough to bet on. The clear separation between "enemies" (Biden, Obama), "fraying allies" (Greene, Carlson), and "inner circle" (Vance, Musk) maps onto observable political reality.
And perhaps most importantly, it's a reminder of just how far prediction markets have evolved from forecasting elections to forecasting the daily temperature of American political discourse, one insult at a time.
