The current edition of the World Cup has been filled with surprises from presumed underdogs that ended up being hard-as-nails teams competing head-to-head with the elite favorites. As the group stage progresses, traders at Kalshi are speculating over the potential outcome of the Round of 32, especially how many matches will conclude in an excruciating penalty shootout.
To participate in the “Round of 32: Matches to go to Penalties” market, traders must take into account the construction of the brackets, the disparity between sides and the defensive tactics of the weaker teams. Let’s check out the odds.
The Knockout Lottery
The order books on the penalty shootout market are structured as a tiered ladder, with traders accumulating Yes or No shares across a series of custom numeric thresholds. Currently, most traders believe that at least a penalty shootout is a locked-in choice, with Yes shares selling at a high premium that leaves little room for profit. Only high-volume traders can find value in this position.
Things get more interesting as the brackets include more potential penalty definitions. While the 2+ matches option’s Yes shares command a high price, they offer a bigger potential payout. The 3+ matches option seems to be the turning point for market sentiment. This position has been highly volatile, and currently, it is sitting almost as a coin flip.
The Previous Record
The major catalyst driving the order books this year is the sheer volume of the new tournament format. With more knockout games on the ledger than any World Cup in history, the mathematical probability of witnessing multiple penalty shootouts increases significantly. However, because early knockout rounds feature steep talent disparities between elite group winners and third-place qualifiers, traders are heavily debating whether matches will finish in regulation or grind out into grueling defensive stalemates.
The 2018 World Cup in Russia holds the record for the most penalty shootouts in the Round of 16, with an unprecedented three matches decided from the penalty spot. Some traders believe that this scenario can be repeated in this edition of the World Cup.
The Extended Schedule Strategy
The Round of 32 will be played over the span of a week from June 28 to July 4, with up to four matches to be played on the penultimate day. This expanded schedule allows traders to buy and sell positions during the knockout stage.
If a single game goes to penalties during the first two days of the Round of 32, the Yes shares for brackets like 3+ and even 4+ will experience a considerable surge in price. Accumulating those shares at a discount prior to the final confirmation of those brackets seems like a sensible strategy that might result in interesting profits.
Pay extra attention to highly defensive, low-block sides that have already secured historic draws against stronger nations. The most notable case is Cape Verde, a small African island that is the Cinderella story of this World Cup, managing to secure draws against Spain and Uruguay.
Market Rules
This market resolves based on the number of matches in the Round of 32 of the 2026 Men's World Cup that remain tied after extra time and are subsequently decided by a penalty shootout.
