While goal differential is no longer a factor in determining the final standings within each group, scoring goals obviously remains essential to winning matches.
Which brings us to a new question: how many goals will the United States score in the World Cup? The traders on Kalshi seem to have a pretty clear opinion.
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World Cup: USMNT Total Goals
Note: Own goals scored by opposing players that benefit USA count toward USA's total goals scored during the 2026 Men's World Cup. Own goals scored by USA's players that benefit the opposing team do not count toward USA's total goals.
How Many Goals Will the USMNT Score? Predictions, Market Analysis
The first thing to keep in mind is that we don’t need to worry about goals conceded. This market is focused exclusively on goals scored, which is good news because it allows us to set aside one of the USMNT’s biggest weaknesses: its defense.
With that in mind, let’s turn to the numbers. Under Mauricio Pochettino, the USMNT has been quite productive, scoring 50 times in 26 matches, an average of just under two goals per game.
Even against top European nations like Belgium and Germany, the Americans still managed to find the back of the net three times.
That’s the hard data. Now let’s talk about what lies ahead for the United States in the group stage: Australia and Turkey. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities — although Turkey boasts a strong midfield and attack — which should give the USMNT opportunities to score in both matches.
Our World Cup matchup tool projects 1.5 goals for the USMNT in each of those games, making a total of 6+ goals for the tournament a fairly safe projection. Once the knockout stage begins, it will depend on who awaits in the Round of 32, but at first glance, the opponent could be either Brazil or Morocco from Group C — a much tougher challenge.
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