As the tournament moves through its group stage, traders at Kalshi are arguing about a very specific topic directly related to the newly expanded 48-team format of the World Cup. The question is simple, but it has prompted a lot of debate and speculation: will every nation score a goal during the tournament?
The Talent Gap
Currently, traders at "World Soccer Cup: Every Team to Score a Goal" are favoring the No shares, meaning that they find it highly unlikely that every team will be able to score during the tournament. If one or more sides leave the group stage without a single goal, the contract will resolve to No. Right now, buying Yes shares is a high-risk investment backed only by a potentially massive payout. It’s not quite like buying a lottery ticket, but it is certainly a long shot.
So far, only seven teams have been unable to celebrate even a single goal in their World Cup appearances. That infamous list features underdogs like Haiti and South Africa, but also heavyweights like Spain and Ecuador.
The No thesis relies heavily on the harsh realities of global talent disparity. The expansion to 48 teams naturally allowed historically weaker nations or tournament debutants to qualify. While the romantic narrative expects these nations to find the back of the net at least once, data models show that facing elite European or South American tactical blocks usually results in low possession and heavy defensive tactics.
The Curacao and New Zealand Cases
While the No argument is really solid, football is an unpredictable game. The biggest proof of this is the fact that four-time champion Germany conceded a goal against first-time participant Curacao. While the game ended with a brutal 7-1 scoreline, the Caribbean players celebrated their first World Cup goal as a major victory.
New Zealand entered the tournament as the lowest-ranked nation. No one was expecting soccer greatness from the Kiwis, but they surprised fans and traders with an impressive performance against Iran. Not only did New Zealand score two goals, but they also showed really interesting attacking dynamics against a respectable Iranian side.
This goes to show that perceived talent is not the main factor. The schedule is what makes or breaks this contract.
The Final Holdouts: Three Teams Deciding the Board
Out of the group of nations that are yet to celebrate a goal, there are some countries whose future performance will determine the settlement of this market.
Haiti: The Caribbeans are, after New Zealand, the lowest-ranked nation in the World Cup. They lost their opening match against Scotland and were not able to score. The problem is that their next matches are against Morocco and Brazil, two really powerful nations that will besiege Haiti, forcing them to relegate themselves to an aggressively defensive position with little to no ball possession.
South Africa: While they lost their opening match against Mexico in a really poor soccer performance, their schedule is way more accessible than Haiti’s. The South African squad will face Czechia, one of the weakest teams in the tournament, and South Korea, an uneven squad with serious defensive issues. Their chances of scoring in their next two games are considerably high.
Cape Verde: The African nation was able to secure a historic nil-nil draw against the mighty Spanish squad. They mostly stayed in a constant defensive, low-block position, relying heavily on their goalkeeper's magnificent performance. Their match against Uruguay might be almost identical, with little to no attacking chances for Cape Verde. Their best shot at scoring a goal is in their match against Saudi Arabia on June 26.
Keeping a close eye on these teams is the key to trading on this market. If one or more of these squads manages to score in the second round of the group stage, then the Yes shares might experience a notable upward repricing. On the contrary, if they can't produce a goal, the No position will be cemented as an almost locked-in option.
