The World Cup Final is officially set. Spain and Argentina will face off at MetLife Stadium in a historic clash of style and soccer tradition.
As the tournament heads to its ultimate match on Sunday, July 19, 2026, the race for the Golden Glove, the highly coveted individual award given to the World Cup's best goalkeeper, has narrowed to a direct duel between two players. A single historic save or a clean sheet on Sunday will surely tip the scale.
The Favorites: Unai Simon and Emi Martinez
Kalshi has a clear favorite to be crowned best goalkeeper of the tournament: Spain’s Unai Simon. The Athletic Bilbao star has had a great World Cup so far, although he did not have much work to do up until now.
Spain operates as a millimetrically precise possession machine under Luis de la Fuente, suffocating opponents with the ball and limiting dangerous threats before they can even materialize. The Spanish are a solid team that has only conceded one goal during the entire tournament. In other words, Unai Simon has had very few opportunities to showcase the great talents that he has.
Traders backing Unai Simon are projecting a career-defining performance on Sunday, against a highly offensive Argentina team that enters the finals as the top scoring side of the tournament. If Simon manages to stop complicated shots during clutch moments, then the Golden Glove will be surely his.
Sitting in second place on the board, though facing a significant gap in implied probability, is Argentina’s Emiliano "Dibu" Martínez. The Aston Villa player has put together a highly competent World Cup, but La Albiceleste's defensive structure has not been nearly as ironclad as Spain's. Argentina's backline has looked vulnerable, forcing Martínez to work in high-stress situations.
Traders buying his Yes shares are predicting a massive performance from the Argentine player, with crucial appearances like that thrilling last-minute save against Randal Kolo Muani in Qatar 2022. To win back-to-back Golden Gloves, a feat never accomplished in World Cup history, Martinez will need a perfect night at MetLife Stadium.
Is There Room for Surprises?
While it's not common, there have been cases where the goalkeeper recognized as the best of the tournament was not part of the winning team. Two good examples of this scenario are Thibaut Courtois, the Belgian legend who reached the Semifinals in 2018, and Oliver Kahn, who lost the final against Brazil in 2022.
So yes, technically there is always a chance that the Golden Glove Winner is not from Argentina or Spain. However, looking at the 2026 landscape, the possibility of a dark horse taking the prize is virtually non-existent.
While Morocco's Bono and Cape Verde’s veteran icon Vozinha earned global admiration for their heroic displays, their early exits prevent them from being serious threats. Vozinha, in particular, became one of the breakout stars of the tournament, but Cape Verde's exit in the Round of 32 completely caps his award projection
With the rest of the field eliminated, the market is entirely consolidated. Sunday's historic game will not only crown the champions of the world but will definitively decide which goalkeeper reigned supreme on soccer’s biggest stage.
