Arsenal vs Fulham Updated EPL Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction

Arsenal vs. Fulham Odds

Arsenal seeks to continue its raucous start to the 2022-23 Premier League campaign when it welcomes newcomer Fulham to Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners have taken a perfect nine points from nine in their first three fixtures, including a dominant 3-0 win against AFC Bournemouth last time out. As for the Cottagers, they remain unbeaten through their first three fixtures and picked up an impressive 3-2 win over Brentford last week.

Historically, Arsenal has dominated this head-to-head matchup. Across its last four EPL meetings, Arsenal is 3-0-1 (W-L-D) with a +1.38 xGDiff per 90 minutes in those contests.

Arsenal

Defense has led the way for Arsenal in its opening fixtures, as it has conceded only 1.8 combined xG in its first three matches.

Furthermore, the Gunners has solid underlying metrics to complement its xG output on the defensive side. Currently, Arsenal sits tied for third in big scoring chances against and fourth overall in penalty area touches against.

On the flip side, its attack has impressed appropriately so far. In three games, Arsenal has managed 1.8 xG/90 minutes and sits third in the league in big scoring chances. Plus, the Arsenal offense continues to perform well at home. Dating back to last season, the Gunners have managed 2.52 xG/90 in their last five home fixtures.

By The Numbers

• 4 — Consecutive home wins by Arsenal dating back to last season.
• +1.00 — The Gunners' xGDiff/90 minutes in their last 20 home matches.

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Fulham

Manager Marco Silva's side is a bit tricky to evaluate at the moment since it's simultaneously a positive and negative regression candidate.

Through three outings, the Cottagers have scored five goals on eight big scoring chances, but have conceded only four goals on seven big chances against.

Additionally, a lot of Fulham's offensive production can be attributed to some early penalty luck. Through three outings, the Cottagers have the largest discrepancy in the league between their xG output (4.4) and its non-penalty xG output (2.6), per fbref.com.

Defensively, it has performed as expected. Fulham has conceded four goals on 4.1 expected — better than only six sides so far — and is a bottom-half club in virtually every important underlying measure.

By The Numbers

• -0.52 — The Cottagers' NPxG/90 minutes minus their xG/90 minutes.
• T-15th — Fulham's ranking in big scoring chances against the table.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Let's state the obvious to begin. This will be the hardest fixture Fulham has played so far this season.

Sure, it opened the season against Liverpool, but that came at home where the Cottagers have proven much better. And if you're allowing the Reds to generate 1.23 xG and four big scoring chances at Craven Cottage, I can only imagine what will happen on the road.

As for Arsenal, it almost feels too obvious to lay the goals, but I do think the market is overreacting slightly to its start. That said, I believe its attack is as good as advertised, so I'll be getting involved with that element specifically.

Last season, Arsenal bossed bottom-half sides at Emirates Stadium, creating 2.14 xG/90 minutes while scoring at least twice in seven of 10 affairs. Combine that with the fact Fulham is a negative regression candidate defensively and I'll back Arsenal clearing its team total for my best bet.

The Pick: Arsenal — Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)