Arsenal vs. Liverpool Betting Preview: Is Liverpool Being Undervalued?

Arsenal vs. Liverpool Betting Preview: Is Liverpool Being Undervalued? article feature image

Pictured: Thiago Alcantara. Photo by Matteo Ciambelli/DeFodi Images via Getty Images.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds

Arsenal Odds+150
Liverpool Odds+162
Over/Under2.5 (-175 / +137)
Day | TimeSunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchUSA Network
Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Arsenal looks to remain at the top of the Premier League table when it hosts Liverpool at the Emirates.

The Gunners notched their first big win of the season last Saturday, beating Tottenham 3-1 in the North London Derby. Arsenal is off to its best start to a Premier League season in number of years and is right in the thick of the Premier League title race. If Arsenal wants any chance of holding off Manchester City, these are the types of matches it needs to win.

Liverpool is on the opposite end of the spectrum, as the Reds are off to a disastrous start. Liverpool is sitting in ninth place and only has two wins in its first seven matches. Liverpool's only match against a big six side came in a 2-1 loss against Manchester United at Old Trafford.


Arsenal's big summer signings have really paid off thus far. Gabriel Jesus already has a 0.90 xG +xAssist per 90 minute rate, which is second best in the Premier League to only Erling Haaland.

William Saliba has turned into one of the best defenders in the Premier League and leads an Arsenal back line that has conceded just 6.9 xG in eight matches and leads the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed. Oh, and he's also scored two goals in the process.

Do do do do do do…SALIBA! 🎶

Arsenal now lead 3-0 over Bournemouth. #AFC

📺: @nbc, @NBCUniverso & @peacockTV#MyPLMorning |

— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 20, 2022

Something that I think will be very important in this match is Liverpool’s pressing, which hasn’t had the same intensity as in years past, allowing teams to play through them easier. Arsenal hasn’t played a really good pressing team yet this season, but toward the end of last season, Liverpool was unable to didn't successfully press Arsenal. In fact, Liverpool only had a 25% pressure success rate in that match.

If Arsenal is able to play through Liverpool's press, the Gunners should be able to create some high quality chances against a defense that has been pretty vulnerable this season.


It's tough times for Jurgen Klopp's side, but it's not all bad news. Liverpool has a +5.5 xGD through seven matches and the offense is averaging over 2.00 xG per match.

If we were purely going based on this season’s numbers, you could make a good case for Arsenal based on xG, but Liverpool is number one in the Premier League in a lot of categories like progressive passes + dribbles for and against, per

But, the two toughest matches Liverpool has had this season were against Manchester United — during which they dominated possession and took a ton of shots, but still lost on xG — and Napoli, in a match where they got absolutely pounded. However, Thiago didn’t start for either of those matches. 

Thiago is Liverpool's most important player at this point from an on/off split perspective. Since the start of last season, Thiago has missed 18 matches. In those 18 matches, Liverpool is allowing 1.24 xG per match. With Thiago in the lineup, Liverpool is only allowing 0.73 xG per match. He's so incredibly vital in stopping transition counter attacks and having him in the lineup for the trip to the Emirates will give Liverpool a fantastic chance of coming away with three points.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite Liverpool being in ninth place, a lot of their advanced metrics don't show a massive drop off from last season.

I think the market has overreacted a little too much to each club's start this season.

I actually have Liverpool projected as a +122 underdog, so I like the value on the Reds draw no bet at -107 (BetRivers)

The Pick: Liverpool Draw no Bet (-107) 

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