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Sunday Bundesliga Betting Odds, Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Paderborn Picks & Predictions (May 31)

Credit:

Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Mats Hummels

  • Borussia Dortmund is a big favorite over Paderborn in Sunday Bundesliga action, with the total set at a lofty 3.5.
  • Paderborn's bleak offensive numbers are inline with their expected goals, while Dortmund's defense has improved.
  • Get our pick and prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs. Paderborn below.

`Borussia Dortmund at Paderborn Odds

Dortmund odds -300
(BET NOW)
Paderborn odds +750
(BET NOW)
Draw odds +440
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Over/Under 3.5 (+124/-150)
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Time Sunday, 12 p.m. ET
TV FS1

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Handicapping motivation is not an easy thing in normal times, but trying to figure out if Borussia Dortmund will truly “be up for it” against last-place and certain-to-be-relegated Paderborn in a crowd-less stadium, a few days after losing their biggest match of the season, is worth considering.

Regression was always coming for Dortmund and Bayern Munich were the perfect team to deliver it to them in a close 1-0 victory. According to expected goals, Der Klassiker was essentially a coin flip, with Bayern winning the xG battle, 0.77 to 0.62. A moment of magic from Joshua Kimmich was the difference.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Bayern’s victory basically set Dortmund adrift from the title race as a seven-point gap with six matches to go is nearly impossible to overcome. BVB will now need to shift focus to keeping a hold on second place and on their automatic berth into Champions League.

SC Paderborn are almost certain to be relegated from the Bundesliga after 2019-20. Paderborn are eight points behind 16th-place Fortuna Dusseldorf and even if, by some miracle, Paderborn overtook Dusseldorf they’d still need to win a play-off against the third-place finisher from the second division.

On paper, there’s no comparing these two teams — Dortmund are on a completely different planet compared to Paderborn, but this is a tricky matchup to navigate.

Dortmund Paderborn
Goals for per game 2.64 1.11
Expected goals for per game 1.74 1.16
Goals against per game 1.21 1.96
Expected goals against per game 1.23 1.85
Total goals per game 3.86 3.07
Total expected goals per game 2.97 3.01

As the table above shows, Dortmund is running hot on offense but their defense is a legitimate strength, ranking fourth in the Bundesliga in expected goals against this season. Paderborn’s bleak offensive numbers, on the other hand, are inline with their expected goals.

This game could be loose, considering the situational spots, and that could lead to a back-and-forth affair, but I’ll try and ignore that noise and stick to the numbers.

Dortmund should win this match handily and Paderborn’s 1.16 expected goals for per match suggests they could be in for a rough night. BVB may be known as an offensive force, but their defense is their true strength and I will back Dortmund to pitch a clean sheet in a win over feckless Paderborn at a decent price on Saturday.

The bet: Dortmund to win to nil (+142)

[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

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