Bournemouth vs Luton Town Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
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Bournemouth vs Luton Town Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | -200 |
| Luton Town Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Bournemouth look to keep up their good form when they host Luton Town.
Bournemouth are on an upward trajectory at the moment and look like a real candidate to finish in the top half of the table. The turnaround that Adoni Iraola has done at the club is nothing short of remarkable and he is getting everything right tactically for the Cherries. These matches though are ones they need all three points if they want to secure a top half finish.
Luton Town are coming off a last grasp equalizer at Selhurst Park to pull them back a little bit in the relegation battle. The Hatters are in a bad run of form and are desperate for all three points here to help them stay in the Premier League.
Here's my Bournemouth vs Luton Town prediction.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth are really starting to become a great team under Adoni Iraola. What has allowed them to have this incredible ascension after their poor start to the season is two things.
First, their hybrid high press has been incredibly effective. Bournemouth put a lot pressure on teams that want to build out of the back, but they also make it really difficult for teams like Luton Town to complete long balls over the top given how much they push up their back four to aid in the press. Because of this, Bournemouth’s PPDA since the beginning of December is 8.3, which is the third-best mark in the Premier League behind only Liverpool and Arsenal. Not only that, but when they do regain the ball high up the pitch, they’ve been incredibly effective at scoring off their easy transition opportunities, as they’ve scored seven goals off of forced high turnovers, which is the second-most in the league.
It also helps that they have a great striker in Dominic Solanke to finish off all of these chances. Solanke is the most important player to Bournemouth right now, as he's scored 14 of their 37 goals and has a 0.59 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.
The other aspect that makes Bournemouth so good is their tactical flexibility. Take for example their match against Burnley recently. They allowed one of the bottom of the table teams to control 71% possession against them and still won the match 2-0. It’s because Iraola has been more willing to play direct than always building out of the back.
Luton Town
It's been very evident since the 4-0 win against Brighton that Rob Edwards has changed the way Luton Town play out of possession. Early in the season, Luton Town tried to play a passive low block, but they were so bad at denying space through the middle that good in possession teams were ripping them apart.
He scraped that and now has Luton Town going man to man across the pitch, pressing opponents high and trying to force turnovers. That has led to back and forth matches where Luton Town are conceding a ton of chances, mostly in transition. The Hatters are the worst defensive team in the Premier League and have conceded 14.8 expected goals over their last six matches. While all of that sounds bad, it's hard to argue that Rob Edward's approach is the wrong one.
During this six match run where they have conceded a boat load of chances, they have also created 9.5 expected goals, which is a much higher output than they had in the beginning of the season.
The main way that Luton Town create all of their chances is via crosses, as they are top five in the Premier League at crosses completed into the penalty area. Bournemouth are very average at defending crosses and have the third-worst aerial duel win percentage, so the Hatters will have their chances in this match.
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Bournemouth vs Luton Town
Prediction
Given the tactical versatility that Bournemouth have, they should be able to torch Luton Town in a back and forth transitional battle here on Wednesday. There is no doubt in my mind Luton Town is going to go for it and be super aggressive out of possession because they do not have a choice.
The Hatters are falling behind quickly in the relegation battle, so they need three points here, which is not the best scenario when facing a team that has the pace like Bournemouth do.
The flip side though is Bournemouth are average at defending the one thing that Luton Town excel at, so the Hatters could put the ball in the back of the net once or twice.
I have 4.09 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+126 via FanDuel)
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