Updated Brentford vs. Everton Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Brentford standout Ivan Toney.
Brentford vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Brentford looks to make it consecutive home wins to open the Premier League season when it hosts an Everton side looking for its first victory anywhere in the new campaign.
The Bees will have to overcome the derby disappointment of last weekend’s 3-2 loss to Fulham despite pulling level after trailing 2-0 early on.
On the other side, the Toffees are coming off a 1-1 home draw at Goodison Park against another newly promoted opponent in Nottingham Forrest.
Brentford swept the 2021-2022 league series, though Everton triumphed in a 4-1 home rout during a third meeting in the fourth round of FA Cup action.
The host side pulled off a historic 4-0 victory over Manchester United in its last time out. It’s a result that might paper over some pressing defensive questions in its second year in the English top flight for the club.
In their other two fixtures so far, the Bees have found themselves trailing 2-0 before mounting a response. The first resulted in a 2-2 opening weekend draw at Leicester City, then the latter came in last weekend’s dramatic derby defeat.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Brentford’s five goals conceded are nearly two more than xG data says it should’ve allowed. On the other hand, the Bees are also outperforming their xG scored by a considerable margin.
By The Numbers
- +4.3 — Difference between goals scored and xG recorded this season.
- +1.8 — Difference between goals allowed and xG conceded overall.
For the Toffees, it’s as simple as finding better end product while manager Frank Lampard continues to deal with a less-than-ideal situation up front.
Everton has scored only twice through three matches while it awaits the return of injured striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and hopefully some attacking additions before the summer window closes.
Those woes continued when the Toffees did just barely enough to see off League One side Fleetwood Town via a 1-0 win in Tuesday’s Carabao Cup tie.
Demarai Gray scored in that match and Everton’s home draw to Forest. He’s the only Toffee to find the net so far, with the side’s other goal coming off an Aston Villa defender in a 2-1 defeat.
By The Numbers
- -1.8 — Difference between goals scored and xG scored overall.
- 0 — Goals scored by Everton players other than Gray this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Everton’s attacking deficiencies are clear, but it has still created enough to find the net once more often than not.
Against a Brentford side that has had some defensive lapses, I like the host to do so once again, but probably no more than that in this contest.
Less clear is if that will be enough for an improved Everton defense against a Brentford attack that has league goals from six different players.
So, I’m playing Everton to score exactly once at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability.
The Pick: Everton — To Score One Goal Exact (+145)
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