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Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Borussia Dortmund & Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Borussia Dortmund & Bayer Leverkusen article feature image
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Tom Weller/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund star Erling Haaland.

  • Life in the Bundesliga heats up this weekend, with a full slate of matches taking place in the German top flight.
  • The featured match pits powerhouse Bayern Munich against rival RB Leipzig.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the schedule and delivers his three best bets on the docket.

The Bundesliga returns from the recent international break with two games that include the four best teams in the league facing each other.

A jam-packed, six-match Saturday slate is headlined by RB Leipzig traveling to take on Bayern Munich, with fans returning to Allianz Arena in a limited capacity. Bayern won the first match, 4-1, at Leipzig, but RB Leipzig has a new manager and improved form.

On Sunday, Borussia Dortmund hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a rematch of their thrilling, 4-3 match that saw Dortmund erase multiple deficits and win the game on a late penalty by Erling Haaland.

Hoffenheim visits Mainz in a game with massive implications for the top-four race and potential Champions League places as well. Based on my power ratings, the six best teams in the German flight have all been matched up against one another this weekend.

Bundesliga Best Bets

Augsburg vs. Union Berlin

Augsburg Odds +185
Union Berlin Odds +160
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Augsburg made headlines recently with the signing of young American striker Ricardo Pepi, but they’re languishing in the relegation battle and face a difficult task with a sturdy Union Berlin side coming to town.

Union and Augsburg have two of the most unique play styles in the entire Bundesliga, with Union pressing less than any team in the entire league, dominating the air and playing games at a much slower tempo.

Augsburg is one of the most extreme counterattacking teams in all of Europe and thus has very little of the ball. They tend to take advantage of teams overcommitting or finding a hole in the press and catching them on the break. With Union’s play style, it’s hard for them to exploit that and create enough chances to be close to a toss-up in this matchup.

Max Kruse has left the club for Wolfsburg, but Union will benefit from the return of Taiwo Awoniyi, its leading goalscorer who is back from international duty in the Africa Cup of Nations.

My projection makes Union Berlin a -140 favorite on the Draw No Bet line, so I’m happy to take -120 odds and expect them to be the much more likely winner, if there is one in this meeting.

Pick: Union Berlin — Draw No Bet (-120)

Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig

Bayern Odds -235
Leipzig Odds +550
Draw +425
Over/Under 3.5 (+100 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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The game of the weekend in the German top flight was a Bayern mauling in the reverse fixture, as they created 4.2 expected goals and won the game in a 4-1 rout. It was never competitive, as Leipzig controlled 52% of the ball, but were consistently ripped apart in space and on the counterattack.

The Jesse Marsch era is over in Leipzig though, and new manager Domenico Tedesco has helped to improve the defensive solidity at the club, making them less exposed to counterattacks when pressing high up the pitch.

Leipzig has allowed one or fewer xG in each of the last four wins and that’s something that only happened three times in the entire Marsch era. Going up against Bayern is a different animal though, and I still have some question marks about this defense.

There will be a limited crowd for this game, with 25% capacity, so don’t expect too much of a home-field advantage in this game either. The Red Bulls should be able to create plenty of chances themselves to keep this game competitive and get on the board as well. They threatened the Bavarians plenty in the first game and should do so again.

I show value on Leipzig’s attack when compared to the market, but still don’t trust the defense in this matchup to cover the 1.5 spread, so I’ll take Both Teams to Score and the total over 2.5 goals in this game in what should be another open affair.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Dortmund Odds -105
Leverkusen Odds +255
Draw +300
Over/Under 3.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

This is the ultimate hold-your-nose play in the Bundesliga.

Haaland and Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick are the two most clinical finishers in the league this season, when you compare their xG to actual goals.

Betting on regression to happen for them is difficult, especially in this matchup that produced a seven-goal thriller in the first meeting earlier this year. There were only 24 shots and just 2.9 xG in that game, though, including a penalty. 

Both teams have been running unsustainably well in attack and I’d expect Dortmund to key in on taking away the Moussa Diaby counters up the right wing that destroyed them in transition in the last matchup. Dortmund’s defense has quietly improved lately based on underlying numbers, while the attack continues to outrun the inevitable regression.

In the last five games, Dortmund has 16 goals from just nine xG overall. Look no further than the win against Hoffenheim last match that saw Dortmund score on its first two shots, then get gifted an own goal.

Leverkusen’s defense has struggled of late to keep chances out and the attack has been scoring goals for fun, but a period of regression will come for these situations and the total is inflated off recent form.

I only project 3.3 goals, so I will take the total staying under 3.5 goals at -115 or better. I show a little bit of value on Dortmund to win the game as well and like the matchup for them because Leverkusen won’t generate a ton of big scoring chances. However, I’m just sticking with the total.

Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-110)

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