Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Pick, Prediction: Lay it With Favorite in Der Klassiker

Dortmund vs. Bayern Odds

One of the most historic rivalries in all of European football is renewed on Saturday as Bayern Munich visits Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker.

The Bavarian champions sit one point above Dortmund in the Bundesliga standings and if Dortmund wants any chance of ending the Bayern run of titles, it likely needs all three points at home in this game to have a chance of outlasting them over 34 league matches.

Dortmund is out of the Champions League already and has all of its focus for the rest of the season on league play, where the Black and Yellows will be bolstered by the return of star striker Erling Haaland to the lineup. Haaland missed six Bundesliga matches and three Champions League matches, a major reason Dortmund is out of that competition.

Bayern has dealt with a recent COVID-19 outbreak that sidelined manager Julian Nagelsmann for multiple matches and will leave both central midfielder Joshua Kimmich and right back Benjamin Pavard out of the side for this match.

The increase in COVID-19 across Germany has forced the government to re-impose restrictions and this game will be played in front of just 15,000 fans.

Bayern has won six in a row in this rivalry, including a 3-1 win against Dortmund in the German SuperCup at the beginning of this domestic campaign. Dortmund has given them plenty of challenges, including grabbing leads in both Bundesliga meetings last season, but it's been a rivalry recently dominated by Bayern.

Dortmund Facing Lineup Dilemma

While Kimmich and Pavard might be out for Bayern, Dortmund has dealt with various injuries issues for most of Marco Rose's tenure. Rose came over from Gladbach in the offseason but has rarely had his best XI available and he won't again on Saturday.

Raphael Guerriero is one of the best ball-progressing full backs in the world, but his status is uncertain for this match as of Friday morning as he works his way back from injury. Gio Reyna has returned to training but is expected to be out, while both Emre Can and Jude Bellingham are unlikely to start.

Bellingham has been single-handedly carrying the Dortmund midfield at certain points of this season and the loss of his passing ability is huge to a midfield that otherwise lacks creative and plus passing to control the play.

Dortmund also has some regression coming in the league, where they've run well above their xG numbers for the season. They've scored 33 goals from just 25.9 xGF and their expected points for the year is just 22.48 despite a 30 point return from their first 13 league games.

Dortmund have struggled to find the balance between attacking and defending, and personnel issues are certainly a part of that. They've been quite open at the back, where they've conceded the sixth most big scoring chances and have just the eighth best defense by non-penalty xG allowed.

Dortmund is still one of the more dominant teams in the league in terms of controlling the possession in dangerous areas, but when teams do get into their box, they've been very vulnerable defensively.

Dortmund's had issues defensively from its fullbacks for years and it's a major reason Bayern has dominated this rivalry of late. Expect to see a lot of Alphonso Davies, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané exploiting Dortmund on the wings and getting to the byline for cutbacks to the center of the penalty area.

Minor Wobble for Bayern Munich 

Bayern has had a bit of a wobble in recent weeks with Kimmich out for COVID-19 reasons. The performances against Augsburg and Dynamo Kiev following the last international break were not of their standard, losing 2-1 to Augsburg and sneaking a win against Kiev in the Champions League, albeit with little at stake.

The thinnest area of the Bayern squad in the central midfield, with players like Corentin Tolisso being shunted into the role in Kimmich's absence. Tolisso has battled many injuries and been largely ineffective when on the pitch for Bayern.

The expected attacking regression in terms of finishing efficiency has come in recent weeks for the Bavarians, but the attack remains unstoppable at times. Bayern has averaged 2.85 xG per 90 this year, almost a full goal more than every other team in the Bundesliga.

The biggest improvement under Nagelsmann has come defensively, though, where Bayern has cleaned up some of the issues at the back with new center back Dayot Upamecano and an improved structure when pressing. Bayern conceded way more chances and goals than they usually do last year under Hansi Flick. Bayern's xGA per 90 allowed has dropped from 1.21 last year to 0.82 this year.

That improvement has held up despite already playing games against Leverkusen, Hoffenheim, Leipzig and Gladbach, the other best attacks in the Bundesliga.

Despite 31 points in league play, Bayern has actually underperformed the underlying numbers and would be expected to have around 33 based on the quality of chances created and allowed.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The table and recent form suggests that the gap between Bayern and Dortmund is actually not quite that large. Both suggest that the recent wobble from Bayern and league wins from Dortmund mean the hosts should be able to give Bayern a good game here, especially with Haaland returning to the lineup and bolstering the attack.

However, Bellingham is a huge loss in the middle of the park and takes away Dortmund's ability to exploit the loss of Kimmich. Dortmund's fullbacks get exploited time and time again in this rivalry and I see no way that changes.

Dortmund's hot run of finishing and good results isn't quite backed up by the underlying xG numbers, while Bayern's recent wobble form has been more driven in poor finishing than anything else.

The biggest difference from this year to last is that Bayern actually improved its defense, while Dortmund remains vulnerable to big scoring chances and lapses in concentration at the back.

Take away the home fans for Dortmund and it's hard to see how Bayern doesn't cruise to victory, even away from home. The table is lying in how close these two sides really are.

Pick: Bayern Munich ML (-125 or better)