Burnley (3-14-4) and Liverpool (10-6-5) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EST at Anfield in Liverpool.
Liverpool is favored at a -450 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+115o / -160u) goals.
Let's get into my Burnley vs. Liverpool prediction.
Burnley vs. Liverpool Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score
My Burnley vs. Liverpool best bet is for both teams to score.
Burnley vs. Liverpool Odds
| Burnley Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +115 | 3.5 +115o / -160u | +1050 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -165 | 3.5 +115o / -160u | -450 |
Burnley vs. Liverpool Pick
Pick: Both Teams to Score
While Liverpool enters this contest as a heavy favorite, their recent defensive record opens the door to value in the goals market. The case for both teams to score is compelling, driven largely by Burnley’s desperate league position and a surprisingly productive away attack.
Sitting eight points from safety, Burnley can no longer afford a conservative approach in the final months of the season. They need wins, which forces a more aggressive attacking mindset. That urgency has already translated into goals on the road. Despite their struggles overall, Burnley have scored in eight of their 10 Premier League away matches this season. Those games have been notably open, averaging 3.8 goals per match, with the “Both Teams to Score” bet cashing in eight of those 10 fixtures.
Liverpool’s defense, meanwhile, has not been airtight at Anfield. The Reds have kept just two clean sheets in their last seven competitive home games. They have also shown vulnerability against inferior opposition, conceding goals to Barnsley of League One and Wolves, another side battling relegation. That pattern suggests even a struggling Premier League team like Burnley has a realistic chance of finding the net here.
Burnley vs. Liverpool Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Burnley | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | 14.3% | 76.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Burnley | Total Goals | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 0.71 | 3.12 | 2.40 |
Burnley vs. Liverpool Betting Analysis
An in-form Liverpool hosts a Burnley side that appears destined for relegation. While Liverpool are realistically out of the title race, they have put together an 11-match unbeaten run across all competitions. That streak, however, has not been flawless, with defensive issues continuing to surface.
Tactically, this matchup projects as a one-sided contest in terms of possession. Burnley hold the lowest average possession rate in the Premier League at just 41.3% and allow the most shots per game (16.33). Their likely approach will be to sit deep in a low block and attempt to frustrate the hosts. That strategy could have some success, as Liverpool have struggled at times to break down organized defenses this season. The Reds are averaging their fewest shots per game (14.7) since the 2001-02 campaign and posting their lowest expected goals (xG) figure since 2015-16.
Head-to-head history overwhelmingly favors Liverpool, who have won the last six Premier League meetings while conceding just once. In addition, the “Both Teams to Score – No” outcome has landed in seven of the last nine encounters. Still, current circumstances may outweigh those trends. Liverpool’s recent defensive vulnerability at Anfield, combined with Burnley’s urgent need for points, creates a scenario in which a goal exchange feels more likely than the history suggests. Burnley know that draws are not enough and will be forced to take risks, a dynamic that should open the door to chances at both ends of the pitch.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Burnley vs Liverpool picks.
