Champions League Best Bets | RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid, Lazio vs Bayern Munich
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Xavi Simons.
The Champions League is back for the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid and Lazio vs Bayern Munich.
Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
Champions League Best Bets
| RB Leipzig Odds | +200 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -167 / +130 |
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Cunningham: Real Madrid are not in a great position right now in terms of the health of their back line. They had to start Caravjal and Tchouaméni at center back against Girona this weekend, which is not ideal, but even less ideal if Kroos and Modric start in the midfield and are going to be tasked with defending Xavi Simons in the half spaces.
RB Leipzig are going to attack in their 4-2-2-2 formations always looking to play the ball through the middle of the pitch, which Real Madrid honestly haven't been elite at defending this season, especially with their best ball stopper playing center back and Camavinga questionable for this match.
Real Madrid in Europe have been great at home, but over the past few years they have struggled against good competition away from home. This year, they lost the xG battle to both Braga and Napoli and last season they lost to RB Leipzig in the group stage. They did beat both Liverpool and Chelsea away from home, but again the xG was basically even.
Real Madrid have also been struggling to defend set pieces lately. They’ve played Atletico Madrid three times and Diego Simeone’s men have created numerous chances off corners and in swinging crosses. Overall for the season, Real Madrid are 17th in xG per set piece allowed in La Liga. RB Leipzig are a fantastic set piece offense, scoring 11 goals off of them in the Bundesliga and ranking inside the top six in xG per set piece.
RB Leipzig are sitting outside the top four in Germany, but their underlying performances have still been good. They have a +0.72 xGD per 90 minutes, which isn’t that much worse than Real Madrid’s +0.83 xGD per 90 minutes in La Liga. Per UEFA coefficients, there really isn’t that big of a gap in terms of league strength between La Liga and the Bundesliga.
With the situation Real Madrid is in with their center back pairing and their shaky performances away from home in Europe, I don’t think they should be a favorite on the road. I have this match projected as a dead pick’em, so I like the value on RB Leipzig +0.5 at -137.
Pick: RB Leipzig +0.5 (-137 via BetRivers)
| Lazio Odds | +400 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Dabbundo: We get to buy Bayern at a discount here after their disastrous away performance in the Bundesliga at Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday. The market moved from as high as -200 to -145 on the three-way moneyline for this match and there are numerous to be skeptical that Lazio can replicate anything close to what Leverkusen did. Leverkusen's system led to Bayern matching their back three and playing wing backs, a system that was immediately ineffective for Bayern in build-up or transition defense. The German champions had a lot more success in build-up once switching to their more traditional back four, and Bayern will potentially have Joshua Kimmich back in midfield to strengthen their ball progression.
We've now seen Lazio go up against other top teams and consistently struggle to keep pace. The Italian side failed to score from open play in three straight matches against Inter, Napoli and Atalanta. They only had one shot on target in those matches as well. In the Champions League, Lazio had a worse xG difference than Feyenoord in their head-to-head matches and managed one point out of six against Atletico Madrid because of a last second equalizing header by their goalkeeper.
Lazio at their best had elite playmakers and creators who could play through pressure, but this version of Lazio is closer to a league average Serie A team. Even at home, and even with Bayern's shaky play in the Bundesliga, the Bavarians are cheap here at just -145 on the road.
Pick: Bayern Munich ML (-145 via FanDuel)
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