Champions League Betting Odds & Projections | Round of 16 Best Bets, Including Bayern Munich vs PSG

It's time for the second leg of the round of 16 in the Champions League, with three of the four ties only separated by one goal a piece.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate, including PSG vs Bayern Munich and Chelsea vs Dortmund.

The pair, part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures, delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Last updated: Feb. 20

Chelsea vs Dortmund

Cunningham: The first leg featured so many chances it was shocking that only one goal was scored. A total of 3.5 xG was created, 2.1 of which by Chelsea.

The Blues discovered the best way to exploit the Dortmund defense was to allow the match to become transitional. That is where Dortmund thrive offensively, but Chelsea without a doubt exposed some weaknesses when they had numbers going forward. 

Chelsea's pressing was outstanding and it is what allowed them to be so threatening on the counter. They had a PPDA of 6.4 and forced 9 high turnovers in that first leg. Effective pressing is nothing new for Graham Potter’s side, as Chelsea are best in the Premier League in PPDA and top six in both high turnovers & progressive passes + dribbles allowed.

Dortmund are at their best when they’re playing in transition, which is how they are going to set up in this match, particularly with a one goal advantage.

Chelsea’s offense is still way overdue for some positive regression. They were able to find the back of the net against Leeds on Saturday, but they still ended up creating 1.46 xG. In Chelsea’s last seven matches they have scored just two goals, but have created 9.6 xG.

Dortmund were very fortunate to get out with a win on Friday against RB Leipzig, who created 2.4 xG and had 14 penalty box shots – the same amount Chelsea had in the first leg. 

I have 2.91 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

Bayern Munich vs PSG

Dabbundo: PSG travel to Bayern down a goal on aggregate as an underdog in the second leg in Munich. The first leg between these two sides was basically two matches split into one — the pre-Kylian Mbappé minutes and the post-Mbappé minutes.

Les Parisiens had no outlet in the first half to play through Bayern's high press, but once Mbappé came on, it was PSG that dominated the flow of the game and created the clear scoring chances.

Now that he's fully fit alongside Lionel Messi — both were not 100% fit in the first leg — PSG are well equipped to beat this transition defense. The Bavarians only know one style of play and are only comfortable when pressing high, playing a high line and pushing numbers forward. This will leave them quite vulnerable in transition up the flanks, the exact spaces that Mbappé loves to occupy.

In just 34 minutes, Mbappé had one high quality shot, five attacking penalty area touches and scored the goal that was later ruled out for offside.

Even in the exchanges that Bayern got the better of the French side in midfield and the final third, they weren't able to turn that into clear scoring opportunities from the center of the penalty area. Bayern may get caught trading a lot of possession and low quality shots from distance for a handful of high quality transition looks for PSG.

As much as PSG's defense is vulnerable right now, the attacking firepower should expose Bayern without Benjamin Pavard in defense, as he is suspended.

I'd bet PSG +0.5 at -110 or better, and if this is tied late, Bayern will be protecting their lead, not needing to better their total.

Pick: PSG +0.5 (-110 or better)

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