Benfica vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Betting Line & Prediction: Does the Underdog Have Value in UCL Match?

Benfica vs. Bayern Munich Odds

Bayern Munich looks to all but seal up Group E on Wednesday when they travel to Portugal to take on Benfica in Champions League action.

Benfica announced themselves to the world in their last group match, thrashing Barcelona in a 3-0 home triumph. Benfica is the current leader in the Primeira Liga by a point over UCL fellow participants Porto and Sporting Lisbon. However, this is the first time in a long time the club is facing a top-five team in the world, so we'll see if the host is ready for the task at hand.

Bayern Munich is cruising once again in the Bundesliga after beating Bayer Leverkusen, 5-1, on Sunday. The Bavarians thrashed both Barcelona and Dynamo Kiev by a combined score of 8-0 in their first two Champions League matches. So, a win in this latest fixture would give them a five-point cushion with three matches to play in the group stage.

Benfica Doing Big Things on European Stage

This Benfica team is really good and probably the second-best team outside the major five leagues in Europe behind Ajax. Last season, the Eagles led the Portuguese top flight with a +35.3 expected-goals differential in only 34 matches. This season,  they have a +14.3 xGDiff in only eight matches on the domestic front.

Benfica has some experience throughout their roster, with Nicolas Otamendi and Jan Vertonghen as their two center backs who played for Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur for extended periods. Julian Wiegel is their best central midfielder, who formerly played for German side Borussia Dortmund.

Their total squad value per transfermarkt.com is 279 million, which is the second highest behind Ajax for teams outside the main five leagues in Europe.

Bayern Munich Consistently Dominating Competition

It's hard to find a lot of negatives with Bayern Munich at the moment. In their first eight Bundesliga matches, the Bavarians are averaging 2.89 NPxG per match and have already created 32 big scoring chances. Now, that's a little bit inflated given the fact that they have a 7-0 victory over Bochum and a 5-0 win against Hertha Berlin.

Last season, Bayern wildly over-performed their xG numbers, as they scored 99 goals in the Bundesliga off of 75.23 xG overall. And much of that gap has do with the fact that Robert Lewandowski is one of the most clinical finishers in the world.

This season, the Bavarians xG have been a lot closer to what their actual goals are, but I do think they’re overvalued in this spot, considering other projections that I trust.

For example, FiveThirtyEight has Bayern at 52% and infogol.net has them at 61% to win this match. So, considering the implied percentage on -260 odds is  72.22%, you can see why Bayern is overvalued on the road.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Based on UEFA coefficients, the gap between Portugal and Germany isn’t that far because the latter is the fourth-most difficult league in Europe, while Portugal is sixth. In fact, based on the ranking points, the gap between Germany and Portugal is actually closer than the one between the Premier League and Bundesliga.

I only have Bayern Munich projected at -132, so I think there's some value on Benfica's spread of +1.5 at -130 via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Benfica +1.5 (-130)