Wednesday Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions for RB Leipzig vs. PSG (Nov. 4)
Ricardo Nogueira/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Idrissa Gueye
- PSG will be without Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Mauro Icardi for their trip to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig on Wednesday afternoon.
- BJ Cunningham thinks those injuries will prove too much to overcome and makes a case for backing Leipzig to get a result.
RB Leipzig vs. PSG Odds
|RB Leipzig odds||+148 [Bet Now]|
|PSG odds||+175 [Bet Now]|
|Draw||+255 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||3 (-103/-122) [Bet Now]|
|Time||Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS All-Access|
A rematch of last season’s Champions League semifinal takes place on Wednesday as Paris Saint-Germain travels to Germany to take on RB Leipzig. PSG dominated last year’s meeting between these two teams, winning 3-0, in Lisbon on their way to the final.
Leipzig have fallen on hard times over the past week, losing 5-0 at Manchester United in their last Champions League fixture and falling 1-0 away to Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga over the weekend.
PSG has been on cruise control in Ligue 1, winning their last seven matches. However, they will be without the services of Kylian Mbappe, Marco Icardi and Neymar when they travel to Germany on Wednesday.
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Despite their recent dip in form, RB Leipzig have been in great form in the Bundesliga, accumulating a +9.3 expected goal differential through their first six matches. Yussef Poulsen has done a fantastic job replacing Timo Werner, as the 26-year-old is averaging 0.61 xG per 90 minutes so far this season.
The Red Bull Arena has been a fortress for RB Leipzig over the past two years. Die Roten Bullen have lost just three of their last 25 home matches. PSG will be one of the toughest opponents that Leipzig will see this season, but their +23.32 expected goal differential (xGD) over their last 25 home matches suggests they will be up to the task.
For Leipzig to make amends for their semifinal loss they will need to limit their mistakes against Thomas Tuchel’s high press. Two of PSG’s three goals in that match came from mistakes by Leipzig.
The French giants lost their first two matches in Ligue 1 but they have been on a path of destruction since then, winning seven matches in a row by a combined score of 23-1.
PSG matches typically feature an abundance of scoring chances. Dating back to the beginning of last season, games featuring PSG are averaging 3.71 expected goals and 51% of The Parisians’ contests have gone over 3.5 goals. That is the highest rate in Europe’s five major leagues.
That said, it is fair to expect a dip in scoring for this match since PSG will be down to their fourth-choice striker with Neymar, Mbappe and Icardi all set to miss out on Wednesday’s trip to Germany.
Projections and Pick
Even though PSG handily beat Leipzig a few months ago, I think the injuries to Mbappe, Neymar and Icardi will be too much to overcome against a talented side. Therefore, I think this is a perfect opportunity to back RB Leipzig to end their bad run of form.
I’ll bet against PSG and their injury issues and take RB Leipzig draw no bet at -122 and would play it up to -130.
The Bet: RB Leipzig Draw no Bet (-122)