Chelsea vs Luton Town Odds, Pick, Premier League Prediction

Friday, Aug. 25

3 p.m. ET

USA Network

Chelsea Odds	-400
Luton Town Odds	+1100
Draw	+475
Over / Under	2.5  -150 / +120

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

We're making a Chelsea vs. Luton Town pick this afternoon, as the Blues look for their first win of the young Premier League season.

Chelsea have spent upwards of a billion dollars in the last three transfer windows, but so far it's amounted to nothing. They played well in a 3-1 loss to West Ham on Sunday, but the Blues still need some time to get the ship steered in the right direction under Maurcio Pochettino.

Luton Town were off last weekend as their stadium is still under construction, so they've had two weeks to prepare for this match. The Hatters were dismantled by Brighton in their opening match, but this is a team that can profile well as an underdog given their style of play. This will be a very interesting match to see how competitive Luton Town truly is in the Premier League.

Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Luton Town pick and prediction.

Chelsea are going to eventually become an elite team that is deserving of a number like this, but right now they're nowhere close to that. They had another bad finishing performance against West Ham, which was the story of their entire year a season ago.

To be honest, the performance against West Ham was good. They created close to 2 xG, tilted the field at over 80%, and forced eight high turnovers. The problem is with all of these new attackers is they don’t have a true No. 9 and it’s something that is going to plague them for a majority of this season.

Chelsea are again going to tilt the field at over 80% and are going to live around Luton Town’s penalty area, but let’s talk market price. Brighton closed around this number on opening weekend, and they did dominate the Hatters.

However, for a Chelsea team that was a negative expected goal differential team a season ago, has gone through a massive squad overhaul, is implementing a new tactical system and is going to be without a host of players, this is a silly line.

Luton Town may end up being one of the worst teams we’ve ever seen in the Premier League, and the disparity in talent between these two sides is massive. But, Luton Town do play a style that could give Chelsea some problems. 

In the Championship last season, Luton Town averaged just 45.3% possession, but they did finish with the highest direct speed because of how effective they were with their pressing.

Under Rob Edwards, when they are out of possession they play a 5-1-3-1, which you do not see too often in the modern game. But they chase with such intensity it’s one of the main reason why they’re in the Premier League. Luton Town forced 427 high turnovers in the Championship, which was 61 more than the next-closest team. 

They are a heavily set piece reliant team, as 32% of their non-penalty xG came off of set pieces this season. They only averaged 1.33 npxG per 90 minutes in the Championship, which is not encouraging, but their defense was spectacular, allowing only 0.93 npxG per 90 minutes. That highlights Rob Edwards' team in a nutshell. When you play five at the back out of possession you have more defensive stability to defend in and around your penalty area. 

Luton Town were off last weekend, so they’ve had a full two weeks to prepare for this match at Stamford Bridge, which is a big advantage.

To get Chelsea to this number you have to make adjustments to their power rating to essentially make them on par or better than Brighton. There is no world where right now Chelsea are as good as Brighton, so they are overvalued here.

Again, to go from a team that was a -3 xG differential to being priced like a top four team is a massive jump in the market. I only have Chelsea projected -222 and their spread at -1.17, so I like the value on Luton Town +1.5 at +118.

Pick: Luton Town +1.5 (+118 via BetRivers)