Wednesday English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks: Arsenal Can’t Hang with Full-Strength Liverpool (July 15)

Credit:

Phil Noble/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool’s Andy Robertson

  • Liverpool is a road favorite over Arsenal in updated English Premier League odds, with the total listed at 3.
  • The Reds should be at full-strength despite already wrapping up the EPL title, since they're pushing for the league's all-time points record in a single season.
  • Brad Cunningham likes Liverpool to keep rolling against an Arsenal team that's been uninspiring since the restart last month.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool Odds

Arsenal odds +290 [BET NOW]
Liverpool Odds -117 [BET NOW]
Draw +295 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (-108/-113) [BET NOW]
Time Wednesday, 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Premier League Champions Liverpool continue their quest to break Manchester City’s 100 point record as they head to the Emirates to take on Arsenal.

Liverpool are looking to bounce back after their disappointing 1-1 draw against Burnley over the weekend. Arsenal is reeling after losing the North London Derby 2-1 to their cross town rival Tottenham.

Arsenal

This has been the most disappointing season in over two decades at the Emirates. This will be the Gunners lowest finish in the table since the 1994-95 season.

Arsenal still has an outside shot at a Europa League spot this season, but they cannot afford to drop points in their final three matches or they will need to win the FA Cup.

Arsenal’s biggest downfall this season has been their offense, which averages only 1.32 expected goals per match. In fact, their offense hasn’t gotten much better since the restart, as they are only averaging 1.20 xG per match. It’s difficult to see how they can score against the third best defense in the Premier League.

Arsenal has struggled to beat the top four teams in the table, picking up just one point and losing the xG battle 14.66 to 5.62 in seven matches against the Liverpool, Man City, Leicester City and Chelsea.

Arsenal’s underlying metrics at home are a tad worrying, too. The Gunners have only a +0.32 expected goal differential at home this season, which ranks 12th in the Premier League.

As an Arsenal fan I can’t remember the last time they’ve been competitive against Liverpool. In fact, April of 2015 was the last time Arsenal beat Liverpool.

Liverpool

Jurgen Klopp has indicated that his team will be at full strength Wednesday as Liverpool is determined to break the all-time points record. They will be without their captain Jordan Henderson, but the Reds have plenty of capable replacements for him.

Liverpool has been the best road team in the Premier League this season with 41 points in 17 matches. However, they have been a tad fortunate defensively on the road, as they have conceded 6.57 fewer goals than expected.

Mohammed Salah has been the man in form for Liverpool since the restart, scoring or assisting on six of Liverpool’s 10 goals.

Liverpool’s front three of Salah, Mane, and Firmino has been deadly this season. The trio are averaging 1.63 xG and 0.74 xAssists per 90 minutes and should have no problem torching Arsenal’s shaky defense.

Analysis

I don’t see how Arsenal can win this game if Liverpool put out their usual starters. Based on my model, I think Liverpool is slightly undervalued on the road:

  • Arsenal projected odds: +388 (20.48% win probability)
  • Liverpool projected odds: -134 (57.31%)
  • Draw projected odds: +350 (22.20%)
  • Arsenal projected xG: 1.09
  • Liverpool projected xG: 1.91

Based on those numbers, I am going to back the Reds to continue their dominance over Arsenal.

Pick: Liverpool -117

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