Leicester City vs. Roma Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Bet Europa Conference League Semifinal (April 28)

Leicester City vs. Roma Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Bet Europa Conference League Semifinal (April 28) article feature image

Matteo Ciambelli/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Jose Mourinho of Roma.

  • Manager Jose Mourinho and Roma head to King Power Stadium for Thursday's Europa Conference League clash with Leicester City.
  • The Serie A side comes in as a +230 ML underdog, but analyst Nick Hennion thinks the value sits with the visiting side.
  • Check out below why he's backing Roma via his two best bets.

Leicester City vs. Roma Odds

Leicester Odds+115
Roma Odds+245
Over/Under2.5 (-105 / -120) 
Day | TimeThursday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds updated via PointsBet.Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Jose Mourinho will bring Roma to King Power Stadium on Thursday for the first leg of a Europa Conference League semifinal against Brenden Rodgers and Leicester City.

The Italian outfit reached this point of the competition by eclipsing Bodo/Glimt by a 5-2 aggregate score line in the quarterfinal round, while Leicester City got past PSV Eindhoven via a 2-1 aggregate total.

Although the Foxes are slight favorites the first leg, Roma is favored to advance to the final. This will also mark the first head-to-head meeting between these sides in any competition.

Leicester City Having Good Run of Luck

It has proved a lucky few months for host Leicester City, which has now lost eight consecutive Premier League fixtures on expected goals.

Since March 5, the Foxes own a zero goal differential against almost a minus-6 expected-goal differential in eight EPL fixtures, per fbref.com. Entering this opening leg, Leicester City is 5-3-4 (W-L-D) across all competitions.

Most of those underlying issues can be attributed to Leicester's poor defensive trends. Since Feb. 17, Leicester has conceded at least once or at least one xG in 14 of 16 contests.

At the same time, the Leicester attack has fallen off a cliff of late. Dating back to the first leg against PSV Eindhoven, Leicester's attack has created only six big scoring chances. However, five of those six big chances came in a single match, as the Foxes have created zero big scoring chances in four of the remaining five matches.

If there's good news for Leicester, it's that its attack has played decently on home soil. In its last four games overall at the King Power Stadium, the Foxes created at least one xG in three of those affairs.

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Sizzling Roma Enters Clash in Top Form

Whereas Leicester City's run of results have been underserved, Roma has simultaneously produced a brilliant, earned stretch.

A loss over the weekend to Inter Milan put an end to a 12-match domestic unbeaten tear at seven wins and five draws. In that specific stretch, Roma produced a +10 goal differential on a +13 xGDiff, per fbref.com. Additionally, since the calendar turned to 2022, Roma has only lost the xG battle twice in 15 Serie A fixtures.

Most of that success can be attributed to Roma's defense, which prior to conceding at least one xG to Inter and Napoli, held 11 consecutive foes in the Italian top flight under one xG overall.

That defensive success has come in the Europa Conference League as well. In its last three fixtures in the competition, Roma hasn’t surrendered a single big scoring chance.

If there's any kind of concern with Roma, it's that its attack hasn't traveled very well. Across its last five road games across all competitions, Roma has created two or more big scoring chances only twice, per fotmob.com.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The odds market is saying these teams are close to equal, but I'm simply not seeing it.

Even setting Leicester's over-performance aside, manager Brendan Rodgers' group still owns a -11.2 xGDiff in the English top flight this season. On the flip side, Roma holds a +21.6 xGDiff in Serie A play.

Granted, the Premier League is far tougher than its Italian compatriot, but the fact remains Roma possesses better metrics.

It's also worth noting Roma will bring a distinct statistical advantage over Leicester into this tie. Per Opta, Roma has generated the most xG off set-piece situations in Italy this season, while Leicester has conceded the most xG off set pieces in England.

With Leicester's attack running inconsistent at the moment, expect Roma's defense to be the deciding unit. I like the club every which way in the first leg and to reach the final.

Pick: Roma — Draw No Bet (+135) | Roma to Advance (-118)

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