Everton vs Tottenham Odds, Picks | Monday Premier League Game Has Betting Value
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Everton vs Tottenham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110 / -136)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-120 / -106)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Two clubs fighting for different objectives meet on Monday at Goodison Park as Everton battle Tottenham.
The Toffees grabbed a late goal to draw Chelsea 2-2 at Stamford Bridge, which could end up being a huge point in their quest for survival. Everton have been up and down under Sean Dyche since he took over, but they have been in better form at home. They’ve already knocked off Arsenal at Goodison Park, and can they do the same to Tottenham.
It’s very rare that a club battling for a spot in the top four makes a managerial change this late in the season, but Antonio Conte has been sacked. Christian Stellini will be in charge for the remainder of the season and he actually guided Tottenham to three victories while Conte was recovering from gallbladder surgery. His task will be simple: finish inside the top four.
Everton Atypical For a Sean Dyche Team
Sean Dyche has created a high-event style at Everton, similar to his final days at Burnley. In his eight matches in charge, Everton’s matches are averaging 3.19 xG, while the Toffees have drastically underperformed offensively, scoring just seven goals off of 12.2 xG.
With the style of play of both of these teams, I believe it’s going to create a similar type match to what we saw with the Everton matches against Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Brentford. That’s because Everton still have problems in transition defense, just like they did under Frank Lampard.
No longer does Sean Dyche have his team sit in a compact 4-4-2 looking to clog up the middle of the pitch and condense the space in between the lines. Everton are now pressing higher and higher up the pitch, looking to disrupt build up play. Since Dyche took over, Everton’s PPDA is 12.1.
Trying to press and disrupt Tottenham is the way to try and beat Spurs. Tottenham are eighth in the Premier League in offensive PPDA and before the international break, Southampton pressed them effectively, forcing seven high turnovers and holding a PPDA of 9.1.
Tottenham in Need of New Energy
Things were getting stale under Conte and the offense suffered with his obsession of playing a direct counterattacking style. Things likely aren’t going to change drastically under Stellini.
However, in the three matches under Stellini they’ve already played, Tottenham were playing more aggressive and trying to get forward more often. Tottenham aren’t a very possession-dominant team. They’re much better when the match becomes transitional, which is also exactly how Everton want to play.
The matchup is good for Tottenham’s offense because Spurs want to get the ball out wide to their full backs to swing in a ton of crosses. Spurs lead the Premier League in crosses completed into the penalty area, while Everton are the worst team in the Premier League at defending crosses.
Spurs’ defense has been just slightly above average this season, ranking seventh in npxG allowed. They’re a team that will allow you to come into their final third, but they do an elite job at preventing you from getting into their penalty area.
However, if teams like Nottingham Forest and Southampton were able to play direct and have success going forward, who says an Everton team that is due for positive offensive regression can’t find the back of the net?
Everton vs Tottenham Pick
Dyche doesn’t have this Everton team set up like the teams we saw during his time at Burnley. Everton are trying to press higher, trying to disrupt their opponents’ build up play. It’s led to high-event style matches, which the xG numbers confirm.
I am not sure the market has quite adjusted for that yet given how much more aggressive Tottenham are going to be playing under Stellini rather than the passive low block played under Conte. Tottenham’s ability to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses are big advantages.
Plus, both teams are much better offensively when the match gets in transition, which will lead to an end-to-end match.
I have 2.77 goals projected for this match, and I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+110)
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