Everton vs Tottenham Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Match Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Oliver Skipp and Dwight McNeil.
Everton vs Tottenham Odds
| Everton Odds | +190 |
| Tottenham Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Everton look to get out of the relegation zone when they host Tottenham at Goodison Park.
The Toffees played out a thrilling 0-0 draw with Fulham on Tuesday, but with Luton Town beating Brighton, they have fallen into the dreaded relegation zone. Everton's form hasn't been great here during January so they need a positive result to get things back on track.
Tottenham erased a halftime deficit against Brentford on Wednesday by scoring three goals in eight minutes to win 3-2 and get back inside the top four. Spurs are fully healthy and now Ange Postecoglu can unleash everything at his disposal, which has led to a lot of high scoring matches. They beat Everton 2-1 in the previous meeting, so we'll see if they can do the double over the Toffees.
Read on for my Everton vs Tottenham prediction.
Everton
Everton have gone through a little bit of a rut in form, but the reality is that they are still undervalued by the market mainly because of how good they are out of possession.
They have the ability to play two different styles that work effectively. They can sit in a passive mid block and make life incredibly difficult for teams like Tottenham to play through the middle or creating high quality chances. Everton have allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League, which is a testament to their defensive structure.
Everton also have the ability to press opponents high and cause all sorts of problems in build up. The Toffees have forced the third-most high turnovers in the Premier League and also have the third-most shots off of those forced high turnovers. Tottenham are going to play the ball out of the back, invert their fullbacks in build up and try to overload Everton's last line of defense, so the opportunity is there to press Spurs high considering they have been shaky at times when trying to build out of the back.
This is a matchup that suits Everton really well because they want to play route one football. With Tottenham building out in a 2-3-5 when Everton do regain the ball, they will have ample space out wide on the break, which is perfect for them because most of their chances are created via crosses, as they have completed the third-most into the penalty area.
Tottenham
The final scoreline and expected goals will say Tottenham dominated Brentford on Wednesday and they did for maybe a 10-minute timespan. In the first half Brentford looked really dangerous on the break and could have been up 2-0 if they hadn't been offsides by a toe.
Under Ange Postecoglu, Tottenham are playing full throttle both in and out of possession. In possession they are pushing as many bodies as possible up to the last line of defense, which has allowed them to create a lot of chances, but it makes them incredibly vulnerable on the break playing a high defensive line, which is a bad matchup against Everton.
Tottenham blitzed Everton out of the gates in the previous meeting going up 2-0 inside the first 20 minutes, but Everton dominated the match from that point on. The final expected goals tally was 1.8 to 1.5 and Everton outshot Tottenham 18 to 13 despite only holding 39% of the ball.
Even though Tottenham have basically their entire squad available they still haven't been that great from an underlying data perspective. Spurs only have a +2.2 expected goal differential overall for the season and have been dreadful defensively away from home, allowing 1.62 xG per 90 minutes.
Everton vs Tottenham
Prediction
Even though Everton have been in bad form recently, I really do think they should be favored here at home. Given the way Brentford were able to hit Tottenham on the break all night long, Wednesday should give Sean Dyche's team a lot of confidence that they can do the same and get a result.
One of the big advantages Everton have over most teams is set pieces. They have scored the second most goals in the Premier League off of them, while Tottenham are way overdue to concede a goal off of set pieces, allowing four goals off of 7.87 expected this season.
Everton have been outstanding at Goodison Park this season, putting up a +5.4 expected goal differential, while Tottenham have a -1 xGD away from home this season.
I have Everton projected as a favorite, so I like the value on the them draw no bet at +115.
Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+115 via bet365)
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