Fulham vs Brighton Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
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Fulham vs Brighton Odds
| Fulham Odds | +160 |
| Brighton Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Fulham look to complete rare back-to-back Premier League victories when they host a Brighton side that will try to respond from its midweek FA Cup exit in the fifth round.
Fulham earned a 2-1 win at Manchester United last weekend, which marked just their second league win away from the confines of Craven Cottage, thanks to Alex Iwobi's match-winner deep in second-half stoppage time.
Brighton came from a goal and a man down to earn a 1-1 draw at home against Everton in their last league fixture. But despite dominance in possession and shot attempts, their poor away form continued in their latest FA Cup fixture, with Mario Lamina's very early goal proving the difference.
These sides drew 1-1 in their previous league meeting on the South Coast in late October, with an opener from Brighton's Evan Ferguson canceled out by Palinha midway through the second half.
Read on for my preview and prediction for Fulham vs Brighton.
Fulham
The Cottagers' dramatic win at Old Trafford snapped a winless league run dating back to Fulham's season-opening victory over Everton. And like that 1-0 win at Goodison Park, Fulham led when the final whistle blew despite trailing in terms of total chances and expected goals created.
But unlike that season-opening victory, Fulham made up for their deficit in overall chances with superiority in terms of quality chances created against Man U. Harry Maguire pulled the Red Devils level on an 89th-minute header that was the only true "big chance" of the game for either side. But eight of the 12 shot attempts in the game with an 8% conversion rate or higher were Fulham's, including Calvin Bassey's opener in the 65th minute and Iwobi's winner seven minutes into added time.
That model of quality chances over aggregate chances was partly what Fulham relied on to overachieve their xG by a considerable margin during the 2022-2023 season. This season, they've been worse than their opponents in terms of xG generated per shot attempt and still are overachieving their xG difference by more than six goals.
Palinha will serve the second game of his two-match suspension after the defensive midfielder reached the 10-yellow card threshold in a 2-1 home loss to Aston Villa. But while the Brazilian has been considered arguably the most crucial piece of Silva's setup, Fulham have actually won three of their previous four league matches this season without him patrolling the midfield.
Brighton
Except for very early this season, Brighton have shown that Fulham hardly have the market cornered on performing far worse on their travels than at home.
While the Seagulls' European commitments explain some of their slightly diminished league performance this season relative to last year's sixth-place finish, away form is also an obvious contributing factor. Six of their seven Premier League defeats have come away from the American Express Stadium. And the analytics suggest the Seagulls have left points on the table, posting a -0.9 away xG difference that is sixth-best in the Premier League, but a haul of only 15 points that is tied for 11th-best.
Then again, maybe it's as simple as what the schedule makers hath wrought, with Brighton having already visited four of the league's top five sides in the table. And Saturday's visit to Fulham marks the first of four matches against teams currently in the bottom half of the table in their last six away fixtures.
Ferguson has scored only once in all competitions since his tally against Fulham in late October and missed the midweek cup defeat at Wolves with an ankle injury. But the 19-year-old will probably continue to get opportunities in the first team, especially as team scoring leader Joao Pedro remains out for a few weeks with a hamstring injury that has sidelined him since the start of February.
Fulham vs Brighton
Prediction
The dynamic on play here is one of the more unusual ones you'll find: A lower-half team that feels more comfortable dictating play against an upper-half side that is arguably more comfortable in transition. And when you get that dynamic, it can often lead to higher totals when the transition team is playing as the away side against lower ones when that team is the host.
We've seen that pattern play out a bit between these teams over the last year-and-a-half, with the previous highest-scoring game coming in the lone match at Craven Cottage, a 2-1 Fulham victory.
The line has moved toward the Cottagers in the last 24 hours or so, and that's likely because of bettors looking at Fulham's strong home/away splits and Brighton's relatively modest ones. But Fulham's successes have come mostly against the bottom end of the table.
So the better opportunity may be to play the other place where those splits open a possibility, the total. And when Fulham play at home this season or Brighton hits the road, once there is one goal several are often soon to follow.
The best value here might be selling a goal and playing a more aggressive wager on the total to land above 3.5 at +150 and an implied 40.0% probability. It's a bet that has cashed 12-of0-26 times (a 46.2% success rate) between the teams in question when accounting for those home/away splits.
The value probably starts at about +150, where most other books have it, and I expect it may come down into less playable territory by kickoff.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+162 via bet365)
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