Updated La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Almería vs. Osasuna (Sept. 10-12)

La Liga returns to action for its fifth set of matches this weekend with a full slate of games. However, I’ve picked out three fixtures that have the best betting value on the board.

My first best bet comes in Saturday’s opening match between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia, where I’m not expecting many goals. Later in the day, Barcelona looks to continue its strong start with another victory at Cádiz.

Meanwhile, my final play is the lone Monday match, where I expect Osasuna to continue its winning ways against newly-promoted Almería.

There have been some great performances across Spain through the first four weeks, and we should have another great schedule of games.

Our 3 La Liga Best Bets

Rayo Vallecano vs. Valencia

Valencia has been a mainstay in these articles as a team I've been targeting for low-scoring matches. This meeting at Rayo is another prime spot for a Same Game Parlay, pairing Both Teams to Score (No) with the total falling under 2.5 goals at +115 odds via BetMGM as my top pick.

This same wager has cashed in three of four matches for both sides, plus there is a lot to suggest it should get to the window as a winning ticket again.

The visitors are struggling for goals after the departure of last season’s top two goalnscorers, while Vallecano is averaging less than a goal per match.

By The Numbers

• 73% — Carlos Soler (Paris Saint-Germain) and Gonçalo Guedes (Wolverhampton) left Valencia in the summer transfer window. The duo played a direct role in 33 of the team’s 44 goals in La Liga last campaign.
• 0.9 — This same fixture back in April finished with less than one combined expected goal, according to fbref.com.

Pund's Pick: Same Game Parlay —  Both Teams to Score (No) & Total Under 2.5 Goals (+115)

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Cádiz vs. Barcelona

After being held to a draw on opening day, Barcelona responded with dominant victories against Real Sociedad, Real Valladolid and Sevilla.

Manager Xavi’s side has outscored teams by 10 through four games and only allowed one goal. Meanwhile, Cádiz is the only team in the league that has failed to find the back of the net.

I think that trend continues in this game, which is why I’m backing Barcelona to Win to Nil at -110 odds at BetMGM as my favorite play.

By The Numbers

• 20th — Cádiz is last in La Liga in multiple offensive categories, including shots on goals per 90 minutes (1.75), shots per match (8.25) and expected goals per game (0.56) this season.
• +7.3 — No team in the Spanish top flight has a better xGDiff than Barcelona. Meanwhile, Xavi’s squad has only allowed 0.79 xG per contest.

Pund's Pick: Barcelona — Win to Nil (-110)

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Almería vs. Osasuna

One of the surprises of the season in Spain has been the play of Osasuna, which comes into the weekend in fifth place with three wins and a loss.

I like the strong start to continue, which is why I'm backing the visitors on the Draw No Bet market at -120 odds over at BetMGM as my final selection.

This is also a fade of an Almería side that sold its best player — Umar Sadiq — to Real Sociedad late in the transfer window.

By The Numbers

• 38 — Sadiq led the club in scoring over the last two seasons, finding the back of the net 20 times in 2020-21 before tallying another 18 in the last campaign.
• 3 — Only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal have a better xGDiff than Osasuna’s +4.4 through four fixtures.

Pund's Pick: Osasuna — Draw No Bet (-120)