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Leeds United vs. Everton Same Game Parlay Preview: Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction (Tuesday, Aug. 30)

Leeds United vs. Everton Same Game Parlay Preview: Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction (Tuesday, Aug. 30) article feature image
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George Wood/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Jesse Marsch of Leeds United.

Leeds vs. Everton Odds

Leeds Odds +110
Everton Odds +240
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-114 / -108)
Day | Time Tuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Leeds United welcomes Everton to Elland Road as it seeks to recover from its first defeat of the season against Brighton & Hove Albion.

Last season, the Toffees were dominant in this head-to-head matchup, but finds themselves as underdogs for the first meeting between these clubs this season. In two games last campaign, Everton finished unbeaten with a +3 goal differential and +5 big scoring chances differential overall.

Leeds United

Not only has Leeds started the season strong, but it arrives at this fixture as a positive regression candidate.

Through four fixtures, the Peacocks have a +3 goal differential on a +4 big scoring chances differential and have managed only seven goals on nine big scoring chances.

That said, manager Jesse Marsch will hope to improve Leeds’ defense, which has kept only one clean sheet this season and has held just one team less than one expected goal, per fbref.com.

By The Numbers

  • 11/16— Games under Marsch where Leeds has generated 1.0+ xG overall.
  • -2 — Table position for Leeds minus Leeds xGA table placement.
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Everton

The Toffees have staggered out of the gate so far, which is a statement that can largely be attributed to their defensive play.

In four fixtures, manager Frank Lampard’s side has conceded 7.1 xG — third most in the English top flight — and nine total big scoring chances, six of which have come away from home.

But, its offense has seemingly turned a corner, generating no fewer than 1.4 xG in any of its previous three matches.

By The Numbers

  • 1.57 — Everton xG per 90 minutes in last three league fixtures.
  • 7 — Consecutive EPL matches in which Everton has allowed 1.0+ xG overall.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

For me, I’m expecting a wide-open match at Elland Road. From a Same Game Parlay perspective, I want to tie a high-event fixture to a positive outcome for Leeds.

Across their last 38 home EPL fixtures, the Peacocks have seen 25 contests clear 2.5 combined expected goals or a 66 percent clip. Of those 25 matches, they have earned a result in 16 of them, which hits at a 64 percent rate.

Although Leeds has struggled to play through pressure since joining the English top flight, Everton’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. Though four matches, the Toffees have conceded 7.1 xG and nine big scoring chances. 

Given how well Leeds’s attack has performed — 1.8 xG/90 in its last three matches — expect Marsch’s side to generate the lion’s share of chances. That said, this is a Leeds defense that has kept two clean sheets in 16 games under Marsch, so expect Everton to contribute to the total.

Back a Same Game Parlay pairing Leeds via the Double Chance wager with the total clearing 2.5 goals at +130 odds or better. 

The Pick: Same Game Parlay — Leeds Double Chance & Total Over 2.5 Goals (+149)

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