Updated MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Midweek Best Bets, Including Toronto FC vs LA Galaxy (Wednesday, Aug. 31)

Updated MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our 3 Midweek Best Bets, Including Toronto FC vs LA Galaxy (Wednesday, Aug. 31) article feature image

Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC star Lorenzo Insigne.

A busy August closes with a big midweek slate Wednesday in Major League Soccer action.

North of the border, there's a star-studded clash when Lorenzo Insigne and Toronto FC host Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez and the Los Angeles Galaxy.

There's an Eastern Conference playoff six pointer in Ohio featuring Columbus taking on Inter Miami. And down in Texas, Austin FC looks to back up its statement win over Los Angeles Football Club when Portland comes to town.

That said, here are our three best bets to close out the month in league play.

Our Wednesday MLS Best Bets

Toronto FC vs. LA Galaxy

Toronto Odds-110
LA Galaxy Odds+260
Over/Under3.5 (+140 / -170)
Day | TimeWednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

After manager Bob Bradley's summer overhaul at Toronto FC, the challenge for bettors is figuring out just how good the club is at this moment.

Since the debut of trio Lorenzo Insigne, Federico Bernardeschi and Domenec Criscito, the Reds have played to a +0.41 xGDiff overall. That would be good for fifth in MLS over a full season. And while it's a small sample, it also includes one more game away than home.

It's also better than the Galaxy's +0.28 xGDiff overall. And despite two bona fide strikers in Chicharito and Dejan Joveljic, the Galaxyare someone you'd expect to underperform those numbers.

New Caesars Sportsbook users will get a $1,500 risk-free betwhen they sign up and deposit.

The reason? Manager Greg Vanney rarely plays both men at the same time. And the rest of the attacking roster seems to have a complex in front of goal. The Galaxy's summer additions of Gaston Brugman and Riqui Puig could prove helpful, but that's far from a sure thing yet.

Meanwhile, Toronto has finishing class in abundance. So for now, I think the Reds as currently constructed are a considerably better side than the Galaxy, who are also facing a second away game on the East coast in four days.

On average, home teams win 47% of the time in the league. I'd expect a strong Toronto side to win this one closer to 60% of the time against Galaxy club that isn't equal on paper and is also less than the sum of its parts.

That's worth a relatively unsexy wager on the home team at -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability.

By The Numbers

  • 2-0-1 — Toronto's home record (W-L-D) since its Italian trio debuted.
  • 2-5-3 — Los Angeles' record (W-L-D) after a victory.

Quillen's Pick: Toronto ML (-110)

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Columbus vs. Inter Miami 

Columbus Odds-150
Miami Odds+400
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeWednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Prior to the arrival of Alejandro Pozuelo in an attacking midfield role, Inter Miami was as reliable a bet to go under the total on the road as any MLS team.

Well, Pozuelo will be suspended for this clash in the Ohio capital and striker Leonardo Campana is likely still out for the Herons. That makes it likely manager Phil Neville's squad will be extremely pragmatic in trying to limit the Columbus duo of former Watford striker Cucho Hernandez and 2020 MLS Cup MVP Lucas Zelarayan.

The Crew have also skewed toward lower home totals in 2022, as they've attempted to be a more transition-oriented side.

That's been less pronounced since Hernandez's summer arrival. However, after the energy expended to earn a point in last Saturday's 2-2 derby draw at FC Cincinnati, this could also be a place manager Caleb Porter rotates his squad and has both Hernandez and Zelarayan enter at halftime.

The under has hit on Columbus home and Miami away games 16 of 28 times or a 57% rate. Add in the circumstances and it's well worth backing at +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability.

By The Numbers

  • 77.8 — Winning percentage for bettors backing the total staying under 2.5 goals on Miami away games without Pozuelo.
  • 19 — Total clean sheets kept in 28 matches between Miami home and Columbus away games.

Quillen's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+120)

Austin FC vs. Portland

Austin Odds-130
Portland Odds+305
Over/Under3.5 (+115 / -145)
Day | TimeWednesday | 9 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Full disclosure: I haven't had a ton of luck betting draws this season. However, I think this is a play you make at +300 odds and an implied 25% probability.

Portland's 12 ties are tied with Columbus for the most in the league and it has earned half of those on its travels.

Austin has drawn four times at home, and with the exception of a 3-3 tie against San Jose, those results have generally come against counterattack-minded teams like Portland.

There's also something to be said for the challenge of moving on from an emotional statement win over LAFC this past Friday.

The Timbers had their own emotional win over derby rival Seattle that same day. However, Portland manager Giovanni Savarese has a pretty good track record of getting his teams refocused this time of year.

Portland's last two away results — multi-goal losses to Sporting Kansas City and Toronto FC — are probably pushing the line toward Austin. However, they're deceptive. Those sides are arguably the two most-improved teams during the summer window.

By The Numbers

  • 42.9 — Portland's draw percentage this season.
  • 30.8 — Austin's home draw percentage during the MLS campaign.

Quillen's Pick: Draw ML (+300)

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