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MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: FC Dallas vs. New York City FC Betting Preview

MLS Odds, Picks & Prediction: FC Dallas vs. New York City FC Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Ira L. Black – Corbis/Getty Images. Pictured: New York City FC star Valentín Castellanos.

  • FC Dallas hosts New York City FC in Wednesday's MLS affair.
  • The Texas hosts are slightly favored over their “Big Apple” visitors ahead of this clash.
  • Brett Pund takes an in-depth look at this contest below and unveils his top betting selection:

FC Dallas vs. NYCFC Odds

FC Dallas Odds +145
NYCFC Odds +155
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-160 / +110)
Day | Time Wednesday | 9 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday evening via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

In a match of Major League Soccer playoff teams, FC Dallas hosts New York City FC at Toyota Stadium on Wednesday in one of the best games of the midweek slate.

The visiting Cityzens picked up a much-needed victory over the weekend to enter this fixture third in the Eastern Conference standings.

Meanwhile, the hosts only have one win over their last eight outings in MLS, but the Texas club is still in a great spot to claim a playoff berth in the West.

These are two of the best squads in the league, so I’m expecting this to be one of the more entertaining midweek contests.

FC Dallas

Dallas opened the season with only one loss in its first 11 games. However, the team then dropped four contests over the next eight fixtures before this elite matchup.

Everyone can excuse a midweek loss at Los Angeles FC, but there have been some major red flags raised after losses to Vancouver and Minnesota United.

The team is led by the dynamic duo of Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola, who have combined for 19 goals and six assists on the season.

By The Numbers

  • +6.1 — Dallas has been very consistent at home this season, posting this positive xGDiff, according to fbref.com.
  • 1.66 — At Toyota Park, manager Nico Estévez’s squad has averaged more than 1.5 xG per 90 minutes and has only been shut out in one match.
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New York City FC

With the managerial change and transfer rumors swirling, NYCFC struggled in the four games coming into last weekend. However, but the club put together one of its best performances of the season.

The Cityzens racked up four goals on 6.1 xG in the victory over New England, which has been one of many dominant displays on home soil.

However, last season’s MLS champion needs to pick up its road form if it plans to make another run to the title.

By The Numbers

  • 1.39 — NYCFC averages this solid mark of xG per road match, but it’s much less than what the side has done at home (2.81) this season.
  • -0.5 — To add to the road and home splits, the Cityzens have a negative xGDiff on the road compared to the +18.7 in the ‘Big Apple’ during the campaign.

BJ Cunningham’s MLS Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Picks

Fading NYCFC on the road has been a common play over the last few seasons, and I think this is another spot to do so in Texas. That said, I’m backing FC Dallas on the Draw No Bet wager at -120 odds via BetMGM as my top selection.

In four games away from home against teams currently in playoff positions, the Cityzens have owned a -2.3 xGDiff and allowed an average of 1.75 goals per 90 minutes.

You also need to pay attention for lineup announcements, as the league’s leading scorer, Valentín Castellanos, might be rested ahead of the Hudson River derby this coming weekend.

As long as Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola are starting for the host, this is a great spot for Dallas to get a result.

The Pick: FC Dallas — Draw No Bet (-120)

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