Sunday MLS Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction: LA Galaxy vs. Atlanta United Game Preview

Sunday MLS Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction: LA Galaxy vs. Atlanta United Game Preview article feature image

Shaun Clark/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Galaxy star Javier Hernández, right, takes a shot.

  • The Los Angeles Galaxy welcome Atlanta United to Southern California for Sunday's MLS clash.
  • The host side is heavily favored to bag all three points in this meeting, but analyst Ian Quillen has found betting value in the prop market.
  • Check out below why he's backing a plus-money wager as his top selection.

LA Galaxy vs. Atlanta Odds

LA Galaxy Odds-130
Atlanta Odds+300
Over/Under2.5 (-190 / +130)
Day | TimeSunday | 9:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchFS1 | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Sunday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The Los Angeles Galaxy and Atlanta United will try and jumpstart their respective playoff bids Sunday when they meet in Southern California.

The Galaxy entered the weekend hanging onto the seventh and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but are losers of four out of their last five contests after a 2-0 road defeat against Colorado.

On the other side, Atlanta sits 11th in the Eastern Conference after a 1-1 home tie against Orlando City in which it had the overwhelming majority of chances.

The visitors have won all three previous meetings, with the last coming via a 3-0 triumph at Mercedes-Benz Stadium during the 2019 campaign.

Los Angeles Galaxy

The Galaxy's recent slide has come in spite of some of their most consistent attacking play.

With strikers Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez and Dejan Joveljic deployed together in a 4-4-2 formation, Los Angeles has scored 10 goals in its last four games, only to concede 11 goals in the process.

To that end, there should be help coming. Defensive midfielder Mark Delgado is healthy after missing the club's previous two games. And summer signing Gastón Brugman is available for the first time. He was brought in to provide manager Greg Vanney another option at the No. 6 and No. 8 positions.

By The Numbers

  • +6.8 — The Los Angeles xGDiff in 11 home matches this season.
  • 5-5-1 — Record (W-L-D) for the Galaxy in those fixtures.
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Atlanta United

Even with the disappointment of last weekend's home draw, manager Gonzalo Pineda's side finds itself outside the playoff picture based on away form.

Atlanta has only five points from its travels and has spent only 23 minutes plus stoppage time with an away lead. Their lone road win came against last-place D.C. United.

However, maybe the club is beginning to stabilize after a devastating injury outbreak concentrated in its defense. José Purata made solid contributions in his first two starts. Pineda's decision to bench striker Josef Martinez for Ronaldo Cisneros has resulted in Cisneros taking the club lead with six goals.

The Mexican forward is also a fraction ahead of Martinez's efficiency with 0.52 goals per 90 minutes.

By The Numbers

  • -3.8 — Atlanta's xGDiff in nine away matches during the campaign.
  • -7 — The visiting side's away GDiff in those same nine outings.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Galaxy have been extremely inconsistent. Atlanta has been relatively consistent home and away, with wide differences between the two places.

In such a circumstance, I'm inclined to try and leverage a trend for the more consistent performer that also feels at least believable applied to the other.

That brings us to total goals that seem almost certain to exceed 2.5 goals (at relatively paltry -190 odds), but far less certain to exceed a 3.5 total.

Teams have combined to average 3.28 xG in Los Angeles home games and 2.94 xG at Atlanta away matches. The totals have been remarkably consistent in the latter sample, with three or more goals scored in seven of nine Atlanta matches and five or more in zero of them.

That said, I'm playing the Goal Bands wager on three or four total goals scored +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability as my top pick. Even when you bring in the Galaxy's volatile results, it's a trend that has hit 11 of 20 times between Los Angeles home matches and Atlanta away days.

It also checks out intuitively, with neither team excelling defensively, but Atlanta's attack far less dynamic when not at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Pick: Goal Bands — 3 or 4 Total Goals (+135)

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