Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford Preview, Pick: Value is All on the Road Squad

Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford Odds

In the first of the final two weekends of Premier League action before the World Cup, Brentford hit the road to take on Nottingham Forest on Saturday at the City Ground.

The Bees come into the match in 11th on 15 points and looking to end a three-match run without a win. Meanwhile, Forest have struggled in their return to the English top flight, sitting in the relegation zone at the foot of the league table.

The Reds have been more competitive in recent weeks, but I still think all of the betting value in this one lies with the visitors.

Nottingham Forest

Manager Steve Cooper was given an entirely new squad following the summer transfer window, and you might finally be seeing a team gel and get more acclimated with each other.

In the last five league matches, Forest picked up a memorable victory over Liverpool and a pair of points in draws with Brighton and Aston Villa.

The key to the season so far has been the home form, where the newly-promoted side has secured seven of its nine points.

At home, Cooper’s team owns a -0.9 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, which is much better than the -7.9 mark on the road.

Brentford

Brentford rushed out of the gates to start the campaign, only dropping one match in the opening six to go along with a pair of victories.

However, the Bees have gone into a bit of a slump, winning just one fixture from the next eight in the EPL.

Just like last year, manager Thomas Frank’s squad has struggled away from home, failing to win any of the first six on the road this season.

Frank needs to start leading the club to better results away from the Gtech Community Stadium, which could begin with this trip here.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The oddsmakers at FanDuel are expecting a very close match, listing Brentford as the slight road favorite at +160 odds on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals. I know the Bees have struggled away from home, but I think the price is right to back them here.

So, my best bet is to play the visitors on the Draw No Bet market at -114.

The London club has been very unlucky on the road, giving up 15 goals from 8.7 expected goals allowed. If you remove the embarrassing display at Aston Villa, Brentford’s xGDiff away from home this season would improve to +0.1.

Meanwhile, there are going to be opportunities to score in this match, as Forest have allowed 1.417 expected goals per 90 minutes at home. This bodes well for Frank’s squad, which ranks in the top five in the EPL in goals per shot (0.12).

Because of the struggles on the road, I’m not ready to bet the Bees at the juicy moneyline price, but I do make the odds closer to +125 for this match.

The Pick: Brentford – Draw No Bet (-114)